Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
220 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2003

DAYS 1-2...

...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THE MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP H8-7 BAROCLINIC ZONE
IN VICINITY OF WESTERN KANSAS. ITEM OF MOST SHORT TERM CONCERN IS
DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING
(07Z) NORTH OF HAYS.  LOOKING AT RADAR TRENDS, WOULD EXPECT THESE
DEVELOPING STORMS TO REACH TREGO/ELLIS COUNTY BY 09Z.  HAVE GONE
WITH A 50 POP FOR THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE DAY TOMORROW AS THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY.  SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCS TOMORROW WILL
KEEP SOUTHWEST KANSAS DRY DURING THE DAY.

A RENEWED AREA OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTH INTO
NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  THE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN FAVORABLE
ELEVATED HEATING (PALMER DIVIDE AND CHEYENNE RIDGE) WOULD MOVE INTO
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE LATE EVENING.  MEANWHILE, INCREASING
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AHEAD OF A POTENT VORT LOBE BEHIND THE GREAT
LAKES TROUGH/UPPER LOW...WILL MAINTAIN UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FOR
DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE OF LARGE MCS OVER NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS AFTER ROUGHLY 09Z, AND
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT...H7 COLD ADVECTION...
THROUGH KANSAS EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH OF SOUTHERN KANSAS WOULD RECEIVE
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, HOWEVER PUTTING A SIGNIFICANT HAMPER TO OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES. A LARGE AREA OF GREATER THAN ONE INCH
PRECIPITATION LOOKS QUITE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES OF MY CWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL LOOK FOR THE
PCPN TO SHUT OFF AFTER 21Z, WITH LINGERING CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY. THIS WILL PUT A DENT IN HIGH TEMPS, WITH 72 OR 73 AT BEST FOR
HIGHS.

WHILE THERE WILL BE AN ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE
STORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THREAT
WOULD BE SOME LARGE HAIL WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS WELL.  THE
BEST THREAT FOR SVRWX WOULD LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE 12Z WHEN LLJ IS MOST
PREVALENT.

DAYS 3-7...

PREFER THE GOING EXTENDED PACKAGE AS IS, AND THUS NO CHANGES PLANNED
AT THIS TIME. LATEST AVN MODEL RUN SUGGESTS PERHAPS A SHORT WAVE
CROSSING CLOSE TO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND GOING 30 POPS REFLECT THIS THINKING.

.PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 78 60 73 55 / 30 50 60 40
GCK 79 60 74 54 / 30 60 60 40
EHA 83 61 77 54 / 20 50 60 40
LBL 82 60 76 55 / 30 50 60 40
HYS 75 58 72 55 / 40 60 60 20
P28 75 63 74 56 / 50 50 60 40

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.

UMSCHEID/12

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-241000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
456 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY IMPACT MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST TO THE LAKIN, SCOTT CITY, AND DIGHTON AREAS AFTER 10
PM. AFTER MIDNIGHT, THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
WITH LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS EXPECTED AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS, WHICH MAY
PROMOTE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY, AS A LARGE
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN, WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS A CONCERN WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE
PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION AFTER 10 PM OVER ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER.

UMSCHEID