Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
315 AM CDT WED APR 23 2003

DAYS 1-2...
THE MAIN FORECAST DECISIONS TODAY ARE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND WIND SPEEDS.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD RAPIDLY NORTHEAST
FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION AND ENTER SOUTHWEST CWA BEFORE 12Z
THIS AM.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST AND NORTH
DURING THE MORNING.  AS UPPER LOW SHOVES DRIER AIR THROUGH NEW
MEXICO, A DRY LINE IS SURE TO FORM ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
ADVECT NORTH INTO KANSAS. AS STORMS FORM ALONG DRY LINE FROM ABOUT
18Z ONWARD, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS,
ACROSS ABOUT EASTERN 2/3RDS OF CWA.  IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL, SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD THE SURFACE LOW IN
EASTERN COLORADO AND SHOULD EASILY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS BY 15Z OR
SO.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES TO EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, NORTH HALF OF
CWA SHOULD BE IN FOR MORE SHOWERS AND WRAP AROUND LIGHT RAIN.  DO
NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MUCH CHANCE FOR THUNDER TONIGHT, EXCEPT
EARLY IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST CWA.

MODELS ARE CATCHING ON TO THIS STACKED SYSTEM AND IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT.  THE AVN INITIALIZED THE BEST AT 00Z, WITH THE ETA CLOSE
BEHIND.  THE NGM IS THE FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW, AND STARTS DRY SLOTTING US FIRST.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S TODAY, AND BOUNCE
DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ON THURSDAY.  LOWS WILL FOLLOW THE DEW POINT
ADVECTION TREND, LOWEST IN THE WEST AND HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST.

DAYS 3-7...
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

.PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 64 45 65 43 / 70 50 20 00
GCK 65 45 63 41 / 40 30 20 00
EHA 65 42 68 40 / 40 30 00 00
LBL 70 44 69 42 / 40 30 00 00
HYS 61 44 58 42 / 70 50 30 20
P28 60 47 68 47 / 70 50 20 00

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WND ADVISORY ALL OF CWA TODAY,
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-.

12/25

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-231000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KINSLEY TO DODGE CITY
TO MEADE, INCLUDING THE COMMUNITIES OF PRATT, GREENSBURG, ASHLAND,
COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE. NONETHELESS, IF YOU LIVE NORTHWEST OF
THIS LINE, IN COMMUNITIES SUCH GARDEN CITY, LIBERAL AND HAYS, YOU
WILL STILL HAVE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

BURKE