Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...FINAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
345 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2003

DAYS 1-2...

LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
DEEP MOISTURE IS POOLING NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA OUTFLOW BDRY WITH
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR WEST TO UPPER 60S
SE DESPITE DAYTIME MIXING. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG SHORTWAVE
FEATURE, CONVECTION WILL DEPEND ON CONVERGENCE ON LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARIES. THE BEST CHANCE THIS EVENING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF KS
ON THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY. BUT BY TOMORROW THIS BOUNDARY MAY START
TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH INTO FAR SOUTHERN KS. EVEN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL BE POOLING BY THEN FROM P28-DDC.
SINCE SURFACE BASED INITIATION IS IN QUESTION, DECIDED TO GO WITH
ONLY 20% POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AND E-SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW, TEMPERATURES SHOULDNT GET TOO
HOT. A RETURN TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT MONDAY MAY HELP THE
WARMUP. BUT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS COULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 90S. WILL
NOT GO AS WARM AS THE ETA SINCE THIS MODELS 2M TEMPS SEEM TO ALWAYS
ASSUME FULL SUN AND DEEP MIXING. ON DAYS WHEN FULL SUN IS GUARANTEED
AND DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED, THESE NUMBERS ARE HARD TO BEAT THOUGH.

DECIDED TO INTRODUCE 30-40 POPS AT THE LAST MINUTE TO HYS-P28 CORRIDOR
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS 18Z MESOETA IS NOW IN LINE WITH
12Z AVN IN DEVELOPING MCS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KS. LOWERED HIGHS
AT P28 SUNDAY DUE TO EXPECTED MORNING CONVECTION.

DAYS 3-7...

DONT SEE ANY REASON TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE THE IDEA OF BUILDING THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. STILL SOME NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE FIRST FEW PERIODS
OF THE EXTENDED BUT AFTER THAT, THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND
IS NEARLY CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY LATE WEEK.  CURRENT EXTENDED
FORECAST HAS HIGH TEMPS RISING BACK UP TO AROUND THE CENTURY MARK
TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS.  IN THE 8
TO 10 DAY PERIOD, WILL LEAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS IS.  WILL
BACK OFF ON PRECIP TO BELOW NORMAL.  WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL
BE PRETTY ISOLATED AND SLOW MOVING.

FINCH/GERARD

.PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 68 95 67 97 / 20 20 20 00
GCK 65 94 66 97 / 00 20 20 30
EHA 68 95 65 97 / 00 20 20 30
LBL 68 96 67 96 / 00 20 20 30
HYS 66 93 67 96 / 30 00 00 00
P28 70 96 69 98 / 30 40 20 00

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-031000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
505 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY, AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ERUPT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

UMSCHEID