Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
350 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2003

DAYS 1-2...

WEAK UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES, ALONG
WITH COOL MID-UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY, AND
AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. A CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL
LIKELY FORM ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH OF DDC. ANOTHER CLUSTER
WILL DEVELOP DUE TO ELEVATED HEATING IN EASTERN COLORADO. YET
ANOTHER CLUSTER WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN EASTERN WY AND WESTERN SD
TONIGHT AND PROPAGATE SE INTO NORTHERN KS. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS IN
THE NORTH WHERE THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE, WITH CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH. LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY THE MCS REMNANTS
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KS WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS. DECIDED TO LOWER HIGHS SUNDAY INTO THE 70S GIVEN
WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

DAYS 3-7...

THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS RUNS IN DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.  MODELS
ARE ALSO CONTINUING TREND OF FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE BY LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES OVER THE
RIDGE ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER.  MODELS FORECAST THE SURFACE
COOL FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH TO THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER.  THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE WEEK.  CURRENTLY, THE GRIDS DO NOT REFLECT
ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AND CONSIDER ADDING PRECIP
TO THE GRIDS IF IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT ANY FARTHER
SOUTH.  WILL LEAVE THE 8-10 DAY FORECAST AS IS.  MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT NW FLOW REGIME WHICH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR FARTHER SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC FRONT AND
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
FINCH/GERARD

.PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 64 78 64 87 / 60 60 00 20
GCK 61 78 61 86 / 60 30 00 20
EHA 61 80 63 84 / 40 30 00 20
LBL 62 79 64 87 / 40 60 00 20
HYS 64 75 65 85 / 90 60 30 20
P28 66 77 65 87 / 50 60 30 20

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-291000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
229 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS TODAY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS THIS MORNING WAS
LOCATED ACROSS BARBER, COMANCHE AND KIOWA COUNTIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH STORMS
PROBABLY FORMING BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM. PROTECTION, ASHLAND, CLARK
STATE LAKE AND ADJACENT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE BRIEFLY SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. OTHER SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP
FURTHER WEST THIS EVENING.

A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN
KANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND IMPACT AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 FROM
WAKEENEY TO DODGE CITY AND POINTS EAST. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING DURING THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY OVER
AREAS FROM PRATT TO MEDICINE LODGE. DURING THE AFTERNOON,
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED, OF WHICH SOME COULD BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 4 PM.

FINCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1251 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0855 AM    15 SSE COLDWATER          KS   1.00 IN HAIL
06/28/03   COMANCHE

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
539 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0512 PM    12W ASHLAND               KS   1.75 IN HAIL
06/28/03   CLARK                          PUBLIC REPORT.

0518 PM    12N ENGLEWOOD             KS   1.75 IN HAIL
06/28/03   CLARK                          PUBLIC REPORT.

0519 PM    BLOOM                     KS   1.00 IN HAIL
06/28/03   FORD                           BY SHERIFF OFFICE.

0524 PM    12N ENGLEWOOD             KS   4.50 IN HAIL
06/28/03   CLARK                          DAMAGING HOUSE REPORT BY
                                          PUBLIC

0525 PM    15S DODGE CITY            KS   2.50 IN HAIL
06/28/03   FORD                           SPOTTER REPORT.

06