Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2003

LATEST VIS IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER
WRN CWA WITH TEMPS JUMPING INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR WRN
COUNTIES AS EXPECTED. EXPECT THE SAME TO HAPPEN INTO CENTRAL PA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH INSOLATION A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
POPPING UP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVS OF WRN PA IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET WITH LITTLE OTHER FORCING
AVAILABLE TO INITIATE CONVECTION. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WRN
SECTIONS FOR POSS OF AN EVENING SHOWER.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SIG PCPN EXPECTED WED AS SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE
OUT OF THE OH VALLEY AND ACROSS NW PA. THIS SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY
FAST MOVING SYSTEM WITH PCPN ENDING WED NIGHT. EXPECT SWATH OF .25
TO .50 INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS NRN CWA.

MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER AS ERN U.S. REMAINS UNDER WEAK UPR
RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW WITH MOST OF THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAINING OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. THIS PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO FRONTS REMAINING IN
THE VICINITY WITH WEAKENING SHORTWAVES MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS.
BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN ATTM LOOKS LIKE LATE SUN AS TRIPLE POINT SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH REGION...BUT RUN TO RUN CHANGES MAKES IT
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NEW DAY 7/TUE LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.

.CTP...
PA...SPS FOR SLGT RISK SVR WRN THIRD OF CWA.

GARTNER

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-061015-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
440 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING...AND REACH INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM...MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY
SEVERE...ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH...AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

THE MAIN THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY IS NORTH AND WEST OF
AN ALTOONA TO STATE COLLEGE TO WILLIAMSPORT LINE. THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BE THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO COOLER...MORE STABLE AIR IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DANGELO/LIPTON

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>027-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
070015-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1108 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2003

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY BY THIS EVENING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY
SEVERE...ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/CTP

LA CORTE

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>027-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
070445-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
350 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2003

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPCETED TO DEVELOP IN THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME LOCALLY SEVERE...ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/CTP

GARTNER/JUNG