Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS State College, PA

000 
WGUS71 KCTP 152038
FFSCTP
PAC071-152330-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
427 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2003


...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR LANCASTER COUNTY UNTIL 8 PM...

AT 430 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
MUCH OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAD MOVED OUT OF LANCASTER COUNTY. 
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE 
WEST THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...STREAMS AND CREEKS 
CONTINUE TO RISE RAPIDLY IN RESPONSE TO RUNOFF. SPECIFICALLY... 
PEQUEA CREEK AT PARADISE IS ABOVE 13 FEET AND RISING RAPIDLY. 
FLOODING OF PEQUEA CREEK BEGINS AROUND 12.0 FEET...AND HAS RISEN 5 
FEET IN THE PAST 2 HOURS.

PERSONS ALONG PEQUEA CREEK...AND OTHER SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS IN 
LANCASTER COUNTY...SHOULD BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND AS 
CREEKS CONTINUE TO RISE THIS EVENING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

$$

LAT...LON 4015 7664 3976 7624 3977 7609 4013 7595
          4030 7619

000 
WGUS71 KCTP 152150
FFSCTP
PAC071-152345-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
541 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2003


...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR LANCASTER COUNTY UNTIL 8 PM...

RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN WHICH FELL DURING THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO 
CAUSE AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS TO RISE RAPIDLY ACROSS LANCASTER 
COUNTY. 

FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG PEQUEA CREEK. THE LATEST STAGE READINGS 
INDICATE THAT THE CREEK HAS RISEN OVER 7 FEET DURING THE PAST 3 
HOURS.

IN ADDITION...OPERATIONS AT OCTORARO RESERVOIR ON OCTORARO CREEK IN 
SOUTHERN CHESTER AND LANCASTER COUNTIES ARE RESULTING IN AN 
INCREASED OUTFLOW OF WATER FROM THE RESERVOIR. WATER IS EXPECTED TO 
EXCEED THE BANKS OF THE CREEK DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RESERVOIR AS A 
RESULT OF THESE OPERATIONS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

DO NOT LET YOUR CHILDREN PLAY NEAR DRAINAGE DITCHES...STORM SEWERS OR
STREAMS.

$$

LAT...LON 4013 7666 3978 7627 3976 7610 4015 7593
          4030 7620

&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1030 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2003

.DISCUSSION...

COORDINATED W/BGM TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE COMBINED ONE...TWO PUNCH FROM THE CURRENT TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME ADVECTING SLOWLY WEST TWD THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEAKENING COOL FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST...WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR 2+ INCH RAINFALL ACROSS
OUT ERN ZONES. ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 03Z TUESDAY
SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.40 AND 0.80 WITH THE GREATER OF THESE
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NRN/NWRN MTNS.

DEEP DRYING MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...TWO DAYS OF DRYING WONT BE ENOUGH FOR THE REGION TO
RECOVER AND ESCAPE THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS IN
THE THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME SHOULD THE CURRENT
PROJECTED TRACK OF POWERFUL HURRICANE ISABEL HOLD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HARRISBURG     79 61 78 57 / 40 40 10 10
WILLIAMSPORT   76 57 74 54 / 50 50 10 10
BRADFORD       71 48 68 48 / 70 40 10 10
JOHNSTOWN      72 53 70 50 / 40 30 10 10
ALTOONA        75 55 74 52 / 40 30 10 10
STATE COLLEGE  76 55 75 51 / 40 40 10 10
SELINSGROVE    77 59 77 54 / 40 40 10 10
LANCASTER      79 63 78 58 / 40 40 10 10
YORK           78 62 77 59 / 40 40 10 10
&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 11 PM THIS EVENING FOR COUNTIES ALONG...AND
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM.
&&

RXR/LAMBERT

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-151745-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1155 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR COUNTIES MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE SUSQUEHANNA MAINSTEM AND NORTH BRANCH.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...WILL
COMBINE WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BRING
LOCALLY FLOODING RAINS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.

THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION NEAR...AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQUEHANNAS MAINSTEM AND
NORTH BRANCH.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 83...THEN NORTH ALONG
INTERSTATE 81 COULD EXCEED 3 INCHES. THIS RAIN WOULD LEAD TO RATHER
WIDESPREAD AND SERIOUS FLOODING CONDITIONS.

OTHER SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS IT MARCHES ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA LATE TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD OCCUR...BUT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS NOT
ANTICIPATED IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISABEL MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND VERY GUSTY WINDS TO THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ISABEL AND THE FORECAST STORM
TRACK...SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAMBERT/DANGELO

PAZ010-017-151845-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
141 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT CLEARFIELD AND ELK
COUNTIES...

AT 140 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PENFIELD TO
MAHAFFEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NEAR LUMBER CITY AT 155 PM...ST. MARYS AND S.B. ELLIOT STATE PARK AT
205 PM...CURWENSVILLE AT 210 PM...PARKER DAM STATE PARK...HYDE AND
FORCE AT 215 PM AND CLEARFIELD AT 220 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL...SO HEAVY THAT VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO
NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

DANGELO