Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS State College, PA

000 
WGUS71 KCTP 030531
FFSCTP
PAC009-030715-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
130 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2003


...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 315 AM FOR BEDFORD COUNTY
IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

AT 120 AM...RADAR INDICATED THAT THE WORST STORMS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF
BEDFORD COUNTY AND HAD WEAKENED. HOWEVER...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN 
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL FOR ANOTHER HOUR.

RADAR AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT UPWARDS OF 4 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN.

AS OF 115 AM...SEVERAL ROADS WERE FLOODED. FLOODING WAS REPORTED 
ALONG PORTIONS OF ROUTE 26...WITH A FOOT OF WATER OVER THE ROAD IN
SPOTS. ROUTE 31 WAS NEARLY IMPASSABLE NEAR MANNS CHOICE.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS
IMMINENT. NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS HIGH WATER IN A VEHICLE OR ON FOOT

CAMPERS IN THE WARNED AREA MUST MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.

$$

LAT...LON 4015 7868 4003 7851 4012 7830 4015 7865

MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
920 PM EDT SAT AUG 02 2003

APPROX 30-MILE WIDE BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS
MOVING VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WEST BRANCH SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING.

RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEGUN TO SLOW A BIT AFTER PEAKING AT 1.5 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR AROUND 00Z. 18Z ETA SUGGESTS THAT THE LLVL FOCUS FOR
HEAVY RAIN (SFC-850 HPA THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY)  WILL
SHIFT TO THE EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL PA COUNTIES BY 06Z...WHILE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ELSEWHERE.

THEREFORE...WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO CANCEL THE
FLOOD WATCH THAT RAN UNTIL 04Z FOR THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS OF MY
CWA. SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THE EXTREME SCENT
COUNTIES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 2.5 AND 4 INCHES FOR 1 AND 3 HOURS
RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THIS (AND EXPECTED MAX RAINS OVERNIGHT OF
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO) THERE IS NO NEED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR
THIS AREA. ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT WOULD LIKELY
BE ON THE MINOR SIDE..AND AFFECT JUST POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND SMALL
STREAMS. THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED WITH THE ISSUANCE OF URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOOD STATEMENTS (PRODUCT ID = FLSCTP).

700 HPA TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT A DEG OR TWO C WARMER ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BEST JET
DYNAMICS...INSTABILITY...AND LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD OF PENN. WELL LIKELY SEE A VERY SIMILAR EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS.
THE STORMS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST TO NEAR A KIPT...KUNV AND KAOO
LINE BY 23Z SUNDAY WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN (PWATS PROGGED AROUND
1.75)...AND ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL VIA SFC BASED CAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG AND 0-3KM HELICITY OF 125-150 M2/S2.

LATE AFTERNOON FCST MIN/MAX TEMPS AND POPS BELOW

MDT   71  86  71  84 /  30  40  50  40
IPT   70  83  68  81 /  60  50  50  40
BFD   61  79  62  75 /  50  50  50  40
JST   66  79  62  76 /  60  50  50  40
AOO   68  82  65  79 /  60  50  50  40
UNV   67  81  67  79 /  60  50  50  40
SEG   70  83  68  82 /  50  40  50  40
LNS   72  86  71  84 /  30  40  50  40
THV   71  85  71  83 /  30  40  50  40

.CTP...
PA...NONE.

LAMBERT

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-020930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
336 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

DENSE FOG WILL BLANKET THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION THIS
MORNING. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE IN
MANY SPOTS. CITIES LIKE WILLIAMSPORT...STATE COLLEGE AND ALTOONA
CAN EXPECT THE MOST DENSE FOG. THE FOG WILL BURN AWAY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE UP IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE ALLEGHENY AND LAUREL MOUNTAINS. THE STORMS MAY MOVE VERY
SLOWLY AND COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCAL MINOR FLOODING
PROBLEMS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A FEW OF THE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
ALMOST CONSTANT THREAT OF RAIN WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
FLOODING PROBLEMS THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

DANGELO

PAZ012-018-019-022230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
540 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRE AND CLINTON COUNTIES
EARLY THIS EVENING...

AT 537 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF KEATING IN NORTHERN CLINTON COUNTY...TO SNOW SHOE....PHILIPSBURG
AND HOUTZDALE.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH...AND WILL BE NEAR
WESTPORT...AND PORT MATILDA AT 550 PM...RENOVO...AND BLACK MOSHANNON
STATE PARK AT 555 PM...HYNER AT 605 PM...UNIONVILLE...AND GLEN UNION
AT 615 PM...MILESBURG AND BALD EAGLE STATE PARK AT 625 PM.

THE STRONGEST STORM...AND FASTEST MOVING PART OF THIS LINE...WAS
NEAR SNOW SHOE AND WILL MOVE NEAR...OR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF BALD
EAGLE STATE PARK.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL...AND POSSIBLY CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS
AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF
STORMS.

EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THE STORMS. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER
TREES OR STAY IN THE OPEN WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS.

LAMBERT/GARTNER/MACH

PAZ019-026-027-030030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
731 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HUNTINGDON...MIFFLIN AND CENTRE
COUNTIES THIS EVENING...

AT 730 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BELLEFONTE TO 4 MILES SOUTH OF BELLEFONTE TO STATE COLLEGE TO 10
MILES NORTH OF HUNTINGDON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE NEAR CENTRE HALL AT 740 PM...WHIPPLE DAM STATE PARK AT 745
PM...POTTERS MILLS AT 800 PM...REBERSBURG AT 810 PM...SEVEN
MOUNTAINS...POE VALLEY STATE PARK AT 815 PM AND MILLHEIM AT 820 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL...AND POSSIBLY CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS
AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

EXPECT FREQUENT...INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THE STORMS.
DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES OR STAY IN THE OPEN WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. STAY OFF THE TELEPHONE AND AWAY FROM ELECTRICAL
APPLIANCES UNTIL AFTER THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAMBERT