Severe Thunderstorm Warning 256, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
200 PM EST WED NOV 12 2003

MAJOR CONCERN FOR THIS PCKG IS WHAT TO DO WITH HIGH WIND WATCH
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT AND THU. THINKING ATTM IS TO
CONVERT TO A HIGH WIND WARNING ABT NRN 1/3 CWA AND REST WILL GO WITH
WIND ADVISORY. LOOKS RIGHT NOW THAT STGST WINDS FM 10Z-16Z.

IN GENERAL...MDLS SEEM TO BE IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT HANDLING UPR LVL
FEATURES THRU PCKG. BRD TROF N CNTRL U.S. SHARPENS UP AS IT MOVS E
THEN KIND OF CLOSES OFF AS IT APPCHS NEW ENG. BY 42-48 HRS CWA AT PT
OF INFLECTION WITH COLLAPSING RDG COMING IN THEREAFTER.

STG DRY SLOTTING BEING PORTRAYED BY ALL MDLS FOR THIS AFTN AND
EVE...SPCLY WRN SXNS. THIS HOWEVER NOT UNTYPICAL FOR SUCH A TIGHT
SFC
LOW. WRAP-ARND MSTR MOVG RPDLY BACK IN OVRNGT TNGT AS IS THE COLD
AIR AND STG WINDS. NGM FRH FCST ALSO NOT SUPPORTING A WHOLE LOT OF
QPF THRUOUT. THIS KIND OF GOES AGAINST THE HIGHER POPS NGM
PORTRAYING OVR OTHER MDLS. OTHER MDLS RMN IN CHC REGIME FOR TNGT W
WHILE NGM HIGH LKLY. WL PRBBL GO WITH HIGH CHC POPS W TNGT AND LKLY
ELSEWR. WORDING WL PRBBLY BE SHWRS LIKELY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS
TNGT. MNLY SNWSHWRS ON THU. ATTM DONT FEEL ANY HEADLINE NECESSARY
FOR THU CONSIDERING GRND WARMTH AND WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.
ACCUMS LIKELY HIGHEST OVR TYPICAL LE CNTYS.  MAYBE AND INCH OR TWO
IN NRSHR AREAS AND 2 TO 3 INCHES INLAND FOR DAYTIME THU. FOR THU
POPS WL RANGE FROM FLURRIES WEST TO CAT SNWSHWRS XTRM NE OH/NW PA.
LKLY SNWSHWRS EXTRM E FOR THU NGT AND SCT SNWSHWRS NXT SET TO W AND
NOTHING OVR WRN 1/2 CWA. NOTHING ON FRI ANYWR. GUID TMPS PRETTY MUCH
IN BALLPARK BUT MET RUNNING A LTL WARM FOR HIGHS. PLENTY OF ROOM FOR
TWEEKING.

.CLE...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING LATE TNGT AND THURSDAY FOR LAKE SHORE AND
JUST INLAND.
     WIND ADVISORY LATE TNGT AND THURSDAY FOR REMAIDER OF NORTHERN
THIRD OF OHIO.
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING LATE TNGT AND THURSDAY.

VRCEK

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-121230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
535 AM EST WED NOV 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN OHIO AND A
PORTION OF NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER SAYS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA IS IN A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND MAY BE EVEN
SOME TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WEATHER WILL BE AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IF WE GET SOME SUNSHINE TODAY THAT WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IT WILL BECOME WINDY. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES FROM
LORAIN COUNTY EAST AS THE COLD AIR POURS INTO THE REGION. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA AND APPROACHING 45 MPH
ELSEWHERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOW BELT COUNTIES. SINCE THE GROUND IS WARM
MUCH OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE ON GRASSY AREAS AND ON
VEHICLES AND DECKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY AFTER 1 PM.

KIELTYKA

OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027-028-036-037-122145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
408 PM EST WED NOV 12 2003

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EST
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN OHIO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF OHIO.  THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST 30 TO 40 MILES
AN HOUR.  WITH THIS MOVEMENT...THE STORMS WILL BE ENTERING LUCAS...
WOOD AND HANCOCK COUNTIES BY FIVE PM.

THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE
STORMS FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.