Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
225 AM EST THU MAR 6 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM THIS MORNING. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
EAST CENTRAL GA ACROSS MIDLANDS TO PEE DEE REGION. ANOTHER BAND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN GA APPROACHING THE
UPSTATE. MAIN COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM MID-ATLANTIC...TO TN
RIVER VALLEY...TO LA GULF COAST. UPPER FLOW MORE OR LESS PARALLEL TO
FRONT...SO WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER TODAY FOR FRONT TO CLEAR OUR CWA.
STRONG 850 MB JET AROUND 60 KNOTS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THINK BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE THIS
MORNING...POSSIBLY SEVERE UNTIL AROUND 6 AM OR SO. HOWEVER...CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
FRONT. FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. STRONG MIXING TODAY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE
SURFACE...SO WILL RAISE WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES.

PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL MAKE ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND POPS. ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM PUSHING
RIPPLES OF ENERGY ACROSS AREA KEEPING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER CWA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND LOCAL EQUATIONS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR
TEMPS AND POPS.

PRELIM FIRE WX: MIXING HEIGHT 5500 FT/TRANSPORT WINDS W 27 MPH
TODAY.

FCSTID =   22
CAE   72  48  60  45 /  70  30  40  10
AGS   73  47  61  44 /  70  30  40  10
SSC   72  47  60  44 /  70  30  40  10
OGB   73  48  62  46 /  70  30  40  10

.CAE...
GA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 5 AM THIS MORNING.
     WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES TODAY.
SC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 5 AM THIS MORNING.
     WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES TODAY.

BC

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-061245-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
540 AM EST THU MAR 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. STRONG WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HELP CAUSE A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH AND HAILSTONES NEAR
THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AROUND 1000 AM THIS MORNING WHEN DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RJL

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-061315-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
530 AM EST THU MAR 6 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. STRONG WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HELP CAUSE A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH AND HAILSTONES NEAR
THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AROUND 1000 AM THIS MORNING WHEN DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.

WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THEREFORE...EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED.

RJL

GAZ040-063>065-061243-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 AM EST THU MAR 06 2003

THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING 4 COUNTIES
IN GEORGIA:
COLUMBIA...            LINCOLN...             MCDUFFIE...
RICHMOND...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GEORGIA
CSRA BETWEEN 645 AND 730AM.  THIS LINE MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL, WIND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.