Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Burlington, VT

000 
WGUS71 KBTV 120204
FFSBTV
NYC031-120230-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1004 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2003

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK HAS BEEN ALLOWED 
TO EXPIRE...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ALLOWED THE FLASH 
FLOOD WARNING FOR ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK TO EXPIRE AT 1000 PM.  HEAVY 
RAIN THAT HAD FALLEN EARLIER THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN 
PORTIONS OF ESSEX COUNTY...FROM SOUTH SCHROON WESTWARD TO 
OLMSTEDVILLE...IRISHTOWN...AND MINERVA...HAS WEAKENED IN INTENSITY.

BE ADVISED THAT CREEKS AND STREAMS MAY CONTINUE TO BE RUNNING AT OR 
NEAR BANKFULL...AND SOME ROADWAYS MAY STILL BE COVERED WITH WATER.  
THIS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DETECT GIVEN THAT DARKNESS HAS SET IN.

$$

LAT...LON 4385 7419 4377 7397 4376 7385 4399 7373
          4398 7416

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
136 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2003

CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS ACROSS THE FA WITH CONVECTION MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...PARTIALLY DUE TO MORE
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND LOWER INSTABILITY. TEMPS RUNNING
GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE 80 MARK...WITH THE HIGHER
ADIRONDACKS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

TONIGHT INTO TUE...WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS
PARKED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS
THIS EVENING...THEN GO HIGHER CHC/LOW END LIKELY POPS TOMORROW DUE
TO DIURNAL INSOLATION AND WEAK BNDRY LYR CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
AREA. PWAT VALUES TO REMAIN AROUND 1.5 TO 1.75 AND THIS COMBINED
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT BNDRY LYR FLOW WILL ASSURE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CONTINUE...ALONG WITH PATCHY OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
FOG.

TUE NT AND WEDNESDAY...FINALLY A LONG AWAITED BREAK/CHANGE IN THE
STAGNANT WX PATTERN SHOULD OCCUR...AS STRONG BERMUDA HIGH FLATTENS
AND RETROGRADES WESTWARD ACROSS THE SE U.S...ALLOWING MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES. THUS
SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING AND RH VALUES DROPPING. WITH THE DRIER
REGIME...WILL MAINTAIN WIDER DIURNAL RANGES...WITH COOL EVENINGS AND
WARM AFTERNOONS.

THURSDAY ONWARDS...QUITE A BIT OF DISPARITY AMONG OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES AND SENSIBLE WX TOWARD
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. POTENTIALLY
WARM TO HOT DAY ON THURSDAY IF GFS SOLN OF 18-19C 850 HPA TEMPS ARE
CORRECT...BUT WILL CONSERVATIVELY NUDGE THESE BACK JUST A BIT A GO
CLOSER TO ETAS 15C SOLN. LATEST 12Z GFS RUNS STILL STANDING FIRM ON
DIVING POTENT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE TOP OF
CENTRAL U.S. RIDGING FRI/SAT...THUS BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPS...ALONG WITH CHC POPS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AMONG
GUIDANCE...WILL KEEP SENSIBLE WX PRIMARILY DRY BUT HINT AT SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS AND MORE CLOUDS DURING THE FRI AFT/SAT TIME FRAME...AS
THE PROPENSITY OF EAST COAST TROUGHINESS HAS BEEN QUITE HIGH OVER
THE PAST 6 MONTHS. REST OF EXTENDED MAINLY UNCHANGED UNTIL MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE BETTER RESOLVED...AND WILL GO CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

.BTV...FLOOD WATCH NYZ034 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

JMG

NYZ026>031-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-111145-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
548 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT
AS WELL AS NORTHERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

NO SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SFH