Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
245 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2003

.SHORT TERM...AFTER LOOKING AT PROJECTED POPS/MDLS GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY AND GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER/HPC PROJECTED QPF
AND LOCAL SOUNDINGS...SEE NEED FOR POSTING FFA FOR ALL COUNTIES OF
DEEP S TX. COORDINATED WITH CRP JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT OF OUR INTENTION.

DWPTS TO THE MID 40S AT DRT BY 18Z TDY...AS FAST MVG CF APPROACHES
RGV. WINDS SHIFT IN MFE BY 18Z...WITH SFC FORCING OF AMS DURING MAX
HEATING. SCT TO NUM SHRAS/TSRAS PROGD BY ALL MDLS AND HPC PLACING
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ISOHYET OVR VLY 12Z TDY THRU 12Z WED. MDLS
CONSISTENT WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RUN TO RUN ON TIMING OF CF AND MSTR
FIELD. MSTR REMAINS WED...WITH 40 PERCENT CHC POPS OVR VLY. THEN MID
LVLS DRY OUT THU AND FRI...AS FLOW ALOFT GOES FM INIT WEST TO NW TO
NE BY SAT.
&&

.LONG TERM...SECOND SURGE OF COOLER DRIER AIR SAT...WITH LLVL MSTR
SCOURED OUT BY LATE SAT PM...WITH SUNNY SUNDAY. TEMPS TO THE 50 AND
60S FOR LOWS SAT AND BEYOND...WITH MAX TEMPS FOR THE LATE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK STRUGGLING TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
&&

.MARINE...AT MIDNIGHT BUOY 020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 15 KT
WITH SEAS 2 FEET SEAS AT 5 SECONDS. RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED SHOWERS
CONTINUED ALONG THE NORTH HALF OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. MSAS
ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT APPROACHING ABILENE IN LINE WITH BAND
OF LOW CLDS SEEN ON LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGE. THETA E RIDGE
AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE COASTAL BEND AREA TO OFFSHORE WATERS OFF
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. EVENING RUNS OF MESOETA AND AVN AGREE ON WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AROUND MID DAY ALONG NORTH END OF LOWER TEXAS COAST.
ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BY MID DAY INTO
TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD. SINCE AVN HAS POST FRONTAL WINDS OF 20-25 KT
OVER THE MARINE AREA...WILL BUMP UP WINDS TO SCEC RANGE BY LATE AFTN
AND OVERNIGHT FOR THE BAY AND OFFSHORE. WILL INCREASE SEAS LATE THIS
AFTN TO 3-5 FT RANGE AND 4-6 RANGE FOR EARLY WED. A FOLLOW UP FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...AS
A 5H RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIP
IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO AND POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL AGAIN STRENGTHEN FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...AFTER HAVING HAD A BREAK ON
THURSDAY...AND SEAS WILL BUILD...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS IN VFR TO MVFR CATEGORY EARLY THIS MORNING MAY
LIMIT FOG TO LIGHT FORMATION. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR CATEGORY DUE TO CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MORNING
LEADING TO TSRA LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BRIEF IFR IN
+RA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AND BECOME BREEZY BY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE        TE 082/063 075/065 084 70/70/40/20/10
HARLINGEN          TE 082/061 077/063 085 70/70/40/20/10
MCALLEN            TE 079/062 077/064 087 70/70/40/20/10
RIO GRANDE CITY    TE 076/060 078/062 085 70/70/40/20/10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND TE 080/067 074/067 080 70/70/40/20/10

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FFA TXZ 248>257 THRU 9 PM TDY (FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF DEEP S
TX).
&&

SYNOPTIC-GRIDS...58
MARINE-AVIATION-MESO...59

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

TXZ248>257-141100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
600 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE..TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS UNTIL 4 PM TODAY. THE LIKELIHOOD EXISTS FOR AN
EXTENSIONS OF THE WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE OVER THE WATCH AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH
MANY AREAS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS OVER-SATURATED BY DOWNPOURS
YESTERDAY...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL JUST EXACERBATE FLOODING.
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH EARLY MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE. A DRYING TREND
WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THE DRYING
TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

59