Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Brownsville, TX

WGUS74 KBRO 220745
FFSBRO
TXC061-220830-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
245 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2003

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN CAMERON COUNTY REMAINS IN 
EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM...

AT 245 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE TOWNS OF SOUTH PADRE 
ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...LAGUNA VISTA AND LAGUNA HEIGHTS. THESE STORMS 
ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF EASTERN 
CAMERON COUNTY THROUGH 4 AM.    

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR... 
ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. SOME 
LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...SOUTH PADRE 
ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...LAGUNA VISTA AND LAGUNA HEIGHTS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO 
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

$$

SPEECE

000 
WGUS74 KBRO 220842
FFSBRO
TXC061-220830-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
340 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2003

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN CAMERON COUNTY HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED...

AT 340 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT 
AFFECTED EASTERN CAMERON COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE WEAKENED 
AND HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 
15 MPH AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL OUT TO 60 
NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE OF PADRE ISLAND THROUGH 5 AM.    

$$

SPEECE


WGUS74 KBRO 220842 CCA
FFSBRO
TXC061-220900-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT...CORRECTION FOR EXPIRATION TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
340 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2003

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN CAMERON COUNTY HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED...

AT 340 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT 
AFFECTED EASTERN CAMERON COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE WEAKENED 
AND HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 
15 MPH AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL OUT TO 60 
NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE OF PADRE ISLAND THROUGH 5 AM.    

$$

SPEECE

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
810 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2003

SOIL MOISTURE VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AS OF 215 PM WERE PARTICULARLY LOW FOR
THE EASTERN COUNTIES.  THE WETTEST AREA IS CAMERON COUNTY...WHICH
CAN NOT HANDLE MORE THAN 3/4 INCH OF MEAN AREAL PRECIPITATION IN SIX
HOURS.  THE ENTIRE AREA HAS THREE HOUR FFG VALUES OF TWO INCHES OR
LESS.  THE RECENT 00Z SOUNDING INDICATES A WHOPPING 2.54 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE AND K-INDEX OF 40.  THIS INFORMATION ALONE
IS ENOUGH TO PRESERVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 5 AM...NOT TO
MENTION THE SWATHS OF RADAR ECHOES NEAR MONTERREY MEXICO MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN
ZAPATA COUNTY.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH COVERS THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST AND IS
STILL GENERATING SHOWERS OVER THE RAIN SOAKED COUNTY WARNING AREA.
THIS TROUGH IS AT THE TRAILING END OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS
NORTHEAST TO TENNESSEE AND THEN NORTH TO THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NORTH OF MINNESOTA NEAR WINNEPEG.  LOCALLY...THE MESOETA AND
GFS INDICATE A SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS THE TROUGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE GULF.
HOWEVER...THE MOIST AIR MASS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY.  DRY AIR BEGINS SCOURING MOISTURE OUT TO OUR NORTH
BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE GULF HELPS DPSOTEX STAY MOIST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.  BY TUESDAY MORNING A STRONG PUNCH OF VERY DRY AIR
PUSHES IN AT 700 MB...A SITUATION THAT THE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY
HANDLED CONSISTENTLY...TO CUT THE GROWTH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OFF.

UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING THOUGH...PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
COVER THE AREA.  THE POSITIONING OF A MODERATELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL HELP KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST.  A
LOBE OF MID-LEVEL NEGATIVE VORTICITY PROGGED TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS
TAMAULIPAS TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT MAY ERODE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...
PERHAPS ALLOWING ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TOMORROW MORNING TO TOUCH
OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH TEMPO RA CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  EXPECTING ONLY VCSH CONDITIONS AT BEST
TOMORROW AS HEATING WILL BE MINIMAL AND WINDS WILL TURN MORE FROM
THE NORTH BRINGING IN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL HAVE LOCALLY LOWERED CEILINGS AND VIS.

.MARINE...AT 5PM BUOY020 REPORTED SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 6G12KTS AND
SEAS 5 FEET 7 SECONDS. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE STILL DRIFTING TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH BOUNDARIES STILL DRIFTING
AROUND AND POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT IN MEXICO WILL STICK WITH HIGHER
SHOWER POPS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONE FINAL DAY
OF HIGH PRECIP CHANCES AND SHIFTY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCEC
WITH SEAS AND RAIN BEING MAIN CONCERNS. AS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...
WINDS WILL TURN TO NE FOR THE MIDWEEK AND KICK UP SEAS UNTIL WINDS
RETURN TO SE LATE WEEK KICKING IN A LITTLE MORE SURFACE MOISTURE.

.BRO...FFA FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL 500 AM MONDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTIC...69
MARINE/AVIATION...64
MESO...ABBOTT

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

TXZ248>257-221100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
130 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE..REST OF TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH 500 AM TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
LOCATED ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE. THE GREATEST WEATHER
HAZARD FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE
COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND A COLD FRONT MOVES BACK TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND REDUCED
RAIN CHANCES ARE IN STORE FOR MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRIER...
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR BUILDS INTO PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TODAY DUE TO THE CONTINUED
FLOODING THREAT.

MARTIN