Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Brownsville, TX

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
230 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2003

BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THIS
TIME OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.  TROPICAL STORM GRACE HAS MOVD INLAND
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AND IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE A
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER NORTHCENTRAL TEXAS.  THEREFORE THE WESTERN
PORTION OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WHILE THE EASTERN PORTION WILL HAVE ISOLATED THROUGH
MONDAY.  THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REESTABLISH ITSELF BY TUESDAY
INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY
DUE TO AMPLE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.  WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY.  CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY CAUSING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THEN MONDAY.

.MARINE...AT 1 PM BUOY 020 REPORTED NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 12 KNOTS AND SEAS AT 6 FEET 10 SECONDS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GRACE MADE LANDFALL THIS MORNING NEAR PORT O CONNOR TEXAS ALONG THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH GRACE IS
GENERATING STRONG CONVECTION NEAR BUOY 002 FROM 100 TO 200 MILES
OFFSHORE. SEAS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FURTHER OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LABOR DAY AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES WEST ACROSS THE WATERS.  MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
GRACE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO OCCASIONALLY SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CWA
SUNDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPORARY MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY MONDAY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

.EXTENDED...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED
ALONG THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS COASTLINE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHT
BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE         BB 078/094 078/092 078 10/20/10/30/20
HARLINGEN           BB 077/094 077/093 077 10/20/10/30/20
MCALLEN             BB 078/096 077/094 077 20/20/10/30/20
PORT ISABEL         BB 079/091 079/089 079 10/20/00/30/20
RIO GRANDE CITY     BB 076/100 076/098 076 30/30/10/40/20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND  BB 079/090 079/088 079 10/20/00/30/20

.BRO...SCEC.

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...65 AVIATION/MARINE...51  MESO...VEGA

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

TXZ248>257-011100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
600 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM GRACE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN CORPUS
CHRISTI AND HIGH ISLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GRACE REMAINS WEAK AND
POORLY DEFINED. MOST OF THE RAIN AND WIND ARE ON THE NORTH AND EAST
SIDE OF THE STORM. MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE VIA
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR COMMERCIAL RADIO AND TELEVISION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT LOCATED IN CENTRAL TEXAS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER
VALLEY. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS...
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING MAY
OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

MARTIN

TXZ248>257-010030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
412 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2003

...HEAVY RAINS OVER WESTERN VALLEY...
...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OF THIS WEEK...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN LIFTED BY THE
SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION TO OUR NORTHWEST
TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN VALLEY...BUT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS STARTING IN
WESTERN CAMERON AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN HIDALGO NOW. HEAVY RAINS
WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. ISOLATED AREAS COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL AS
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROGRESSES. BE ALERT TO POOR VISIBILITIES
AND ROADWAY PONDING IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
HIGHWAY 83 IN ZAPATA COUNTY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK...AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS
OF GRACE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND THE COLD FRONT JUST
NORTHWEST. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...BUT
HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR COMMERCIAL RADIO AND
TELEVISION...FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS.
PHILO

PHILO

TXZ248>257-010130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
650 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2003

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
HIDALGO COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO ADJACENT MEXICO...

...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR STARR...BROOKS AND JIM
HOGG COUNTIES...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN LIFTED BY THE SEA BREEZE
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION TO OUR NORTHWEST TO ALLOW
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS RESULTED IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A SQUALL LINE HAS DEVELOPED
OVER WESTERN HIDALGO COUNTY AND CONTINUED INTO ADJACENT MEXICO.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DURING THIS EVENING. HEAVY
RAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. ISOLATED AREAS COULD RECEIVE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL AS
EVENING PROGRESSES. BE ALERT TO POOR VISIBILITIES AND ROADWAY
PONDING IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK...AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS
OF GRACE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND THE COLD FRONT JUST
NORTHWEST. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...BUT
HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR COMMERCIAL RADIO AND
TELEVISION...FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS.
PHILO

PHILO