Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
345 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2003

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
CLDS WTH SWIFTLY APPROACHING CFNT MOVG ACRS RGN ERLY THIS MRNG.
LEADING EDGE OF PCPN FM KHPN-KPOU-KALB-KGFL AT 07Z...AND MOVG ALONG
RATHER QUICKLY AS SEEN ON REGIONAL RADAR WTH BACK EDGE INTO WRN NY
STATE ALREADY.  NOT MCH C/G LTNG ATTM...THO REFLECTIVITIES ON RADAR
INDICATING SOME HEAVIER RNFL AND POSS TSTMS MOVG ERD.

HV LEANED TWD ETA FOR THIS FCST PKG...WTH CAT POPS ACRS MOST IF NOT
ALL ZNS FOR A TIME TDY.  APPEARS THAT PCPN SHD BE STARTING ALNG THE
ERN SLOPES OF THE BERKS BY 12Z...PUSHING ERD INTO ERN MA/CCOD AND
THE ISS BY 16Z.  WL GO WTH SWRS AND SCT TSTMS THRU THIS AFTN INTO
ERLY TNGT.  MDLS PUSH THE FRNT AND ASSOCD PCPN THRU QUICKLY TNGT...
OFF THE MA CST BY 06Z.  WL KEEP LKLY SWRS ALNG E CST ARND 00Z...BUT
WL PUSH OFF QUICKLY...WTH CLRG TREND IN BY 06Z.

AS HIGH PRES BLDS ACRS RGN FM OH VLY AND MID ATLC STATES ON WED...
LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT DAY FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF FALL /AUTUMNAL
EQUINOX OCCURS AT 647 AM TDY/.

MARINE...WL PUT UP SCA FOR MOST OF THE WATERS...XCPT CC BAY...NARRA
BAY AND BOS HRBR...FOR SEAS.  DO XPCT SEAS TO BUILD TO 4-6 FT...ESP
OVER THE OUTER WATERS WTH INCRG S-SW WNDS AHD OF FRNT.  WNDS SHD
RMN BLO 25 KTS...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF GUST WTH FNTL PASSAGE.
WNDS DMNSH QUICKLY TNGT-ERLY WED...SO XPCT SEAS TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS TO START OFF THIS MRNG...BUT XPCT
CIGS/VSBY TO LWR AS PCPN MOVS IN.  HV FCSTD MVFR-IFR CONDS FOR MOST
SITES BY EARLY AFTN WTH ONSET OF PCPN.  XPCT CLRG TREND ACRS WRN
SITES ARND 00Z...SPREADING E BY 06Z.

EVT
&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...

THE MODELS HAVE A SERIES OF LOWS/FRONTS MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE LAST HALF OF THIS WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY SHOWS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER.  THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...PERHAPS SIMILAR TO TODAYS...WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY AND CLEARING OUT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER AN
OVERRUNNING SITUATION SETS UP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES OUT OF THE
MIDWEST AND GRTLKS INTO NEW ENGLAND.  THE CHANGES MADE HAVE BEEN
MINIMAL IN THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. TIMING
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST...AND GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE GFS TIMING WHICH IS FASTER THAN THE ETA.  THE GFS IS
ALSO MORE DEFINED IN CLEARING OUT THE SYSTEM FRI MORNING BEFORE THE
OVERRUNNING SETS IN. THE ETA IS SLOWER AND THE CLEARING BEHIND
THE FROPA IS MADE LESS DEFINED BEFORE THE OVERRUNNING.

.MARINE (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...

HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE WAVEWATCH MODEL SEAS FCST.  THE GFS
WINDS ARE A BIT HIGHER ON WIND SPEED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  THE
GFS IS ALSO FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.  AS GFS WINDS TEND TO BE HIGHER
THAN ETA...HAVE USED THE TIMING OF THE GFS AND THEN TAKEN THE
WINDSPEED DOWN A BIT.  THE BUFKIT WINDS FROM THE GFS SHOW THAT THE
STRONGEST WINDS BEING BROUGHT DOWN WILL BE ABOUT 20 KTS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.  EVEN THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN AS THE STABILITY OVER THE
COOLER WATER WILL NOT ENCOURAGE A LOT OF MOMENTUM TRANSFER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SCA FOR SEAS FOR OUTER WATERS AND S SOUNDS/BUZZ BAY TUE
         ANZ232>235-237-250-254-255.

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-241100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
618 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...
MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY...NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND
RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. GUSTY
DOWNDRAFT WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM ONE OR TWO OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE NEXT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...ALONG AND
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.  THIS COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ...MOVING BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY.  ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>021-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-231545-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2003

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SINCE WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG
TODAY.

THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ENTERING WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT BY 1030 AM AND WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...AND NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT
AROUND 1 PM.

IN ADDITION... BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

GAF/NMB