Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
221 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2003

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...LIGHT FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH AMPLE MSTR WL
LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FM LATEST MM5 SOUNDINGS ARE FCST OVER AND
INCH WITH STORM MOTIONS AROUND 5 KTS SO SHOULD SEE SOME VERY HEAVY
RAIN AMOUNTS WHERE STORMS OCCUR.  MEAMWHILE APPARENTLY THERE WERE
SOME WRM CORE RAIN PROCESSES OCCURRING WED EVENING AS RAIN REPORTS
FM SOME SPOTTERS IN THE FOOTHILLS WERE 3 TIMES GREATER THAN WHAT
RADAR WAS ESTIMATING SO LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADJUSTING
ZR RELATIONSHIP TO TROPICAL ZR.  APPEARS MAIN DRIVING FORCE BEHIND
CONVECTION TODAY WL BE AFTN HTG ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
FAVORABLE UPR LVL DIVERGENCE CENTERED OVR NRN CO IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME
PERIOD.  AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT ELY OR SELY LOW LVL FLOW INCRG
INTO THE FOOTHILLS LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO TRAINING OF ECHOES NR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS
IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE NERN
PLAINS.  KLEYLA

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...ON FRI...TROF OFSHR SOCAL WL MOVE INTO AZ. A
WK RIPPLE WL MOVE THRU THE AREA ELY FRIDAY MRNG WHICH WL SERVE TO
INCRS SWLY FLOW.  THIS WL EFFECTIVELY SCOUR MOST OF THE MSTR OUT OF
THE AREA BY AFTN.  MESOETA IS PARTICULARLY AGGESSIVE IN PUSHING THE
MSTR EWD...BUT AVN KPS ENUF MID LVL MSTR FOR SOME CONVECTION IN THE
AFTN.  PREFER THE AVN SOLN AND WL KP AFTN TSTMS IN FCST...MAINLY FOR
THE MTNS AND FOR A SLIVER OF TERRITORY NEAR THE NEBR/KS BORDER WHERE
THE MSTR HASNT BEEN REMOVED AS MUCH.  TEMPS WL FINALLY WRM UP TO NR
NRML LVLS.

SAT AND BYND...FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PTRN FOR THIS TIME OF YR BCMG
EVIDENT.  A STUBBORN LONG-WV TROF WL BCM ESTABLISHED TO OUR WEST...
LEADING TO MDT SWLY FLOW ACRS THE STATE.  THIS WL KP THINGS DRIER
ACRS THE CWFA...BUT A COUPLE OF SURGES WL MOV ACRS THE ERN PLAINS
ELY SAT AND PERHAPS SUN AND YET AGAIN MON WHICH MAY AID IN DVLPG
LIMITED CONVECTION.  THE SURGE SAT LOOKS SUBSTANTIAL ENUF TO KNOCK
A FEW DEGREES FM FRIDAYS HIGH TEMPS...WL KNOCK A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OFF FCST TEMPS SAT...BUT OTWS CUR XTNDD FCST LKS OK. 46

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-192200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1105 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD TO THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING.  THE AIRMASS
REMAINS SATURATED AND UNSTABLE TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS ALOFT.
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S ON THE PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO
15 MPH WILL HELP SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENHANCED INFLOW.  CLOSER
TO THE FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS WILL HOVER AROUND 50
DEGREES.

THIS ALL BOILS DOWN TO SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DROPPING
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
CONSIDERED AND MAY STILL BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THIS
TIME...NEITHER MAJOR FLOODING OR WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE TWO AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN BEING THE HAYMAN BURN...AND ALONG
AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS OF LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES...WHERE OVER
AN INCH OF RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING 1 INCH HAIL.

STORMS WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING...ENDING LATE WITH AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY...MAINLY ON THE PLAINS.  STORMS WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND MAY ALSO BECOME SEVERE AT TIMES.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS COLORADO WILL SHIFT TO A DRIER...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY SATURDAAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TO MONITOR RAINFALL AND RUNOFF
AFTER 2 PM.

RTG/DANKERS