Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
211 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 2003

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE AIRMASS WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE WITH EARLY AFTERNOON LIS FROM -8 TO -10 OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.  A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING, ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, PRODUCING STRONG
MICROBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE STATE SATURDAY AND
PROVIDE SOME BRIEF DRYING. IT SHOULD STALL, THEN MOVE BACK NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. I THINK THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WILL BE LESS BECAUSE OF THE DRYING, BUT I WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL POP BECAUSE OF THE BOUNDARY.  AVN MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AND IS EXCEPTED WITH ONLY
MINOR CHANGES.

BHM 062/082 058/083 065 32-234
MGM 063/086 060/086 065 33-122

.BHM...NONE.

ALZ011>015-017>050-022100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1243 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE (THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SOME OF
THESE WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY ACROSS ALABAMA.

THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK DOES NOT SHOW MUCH PROMISE EITHER AS A
SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES OVER US ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING BETTER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG
STORMS BEING ON TUESDAY.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EVEN THOUGH EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE ALERT TO RAPIDLY
CHANGING AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONDITIONS...ACTIVATION OF STORM
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL LIKELY NOT BE
REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.