Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
342 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2003

MAIN CONCERN FOCUSED ON THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES BEHIND FRONT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 3 AM HAS A LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL MN WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA FROM APPROXIMATELY ALMA TO
RICHLAND CENTER. COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SOUTHWEST
THROUGH SOUTHEAST SD INTO EASTERN NE. TWO BIG THUNDERSTORMS
COMPLEXES ON RADAR MOSAIC. ONE CLUSTER WAS LOCATED NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WI. THE OTHER WAS ALONG AND
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. AIRMASS VERY JUICY WITH 70+ DEWPOINTS
ACROSS IA/SOUTHEAST MN...AND MOST OF WI.

00Z 25JUN03 MODEL RUNS SHOW GFS A TAD STRONGER WITH MN LOW
(PROBABLY DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK) OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS
AND AS A RESULT...PUSHES FRONT THROUGH A TAD SOONER THAN ETA.
BELIEVE SLOWER ETA MORE ON TRACK...ESPECIALLY WITH UPPER FLOW
PARALLELING THE FRONT. WILL TREND TOWARD THE ETA SOLUTION FOR THIS
PACKAGE.

ONGOING TS COMPLEX MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE DIMINISHING. COLD FRONT BEGINS MOVING EAST AS LOW PULLS INTO
ARROWHEAD REGION. CIN FROM MORNING CONVECTION DIMINISHES BY
AFTERNOON WITH SOUNDING CAPES BUILDING TO AROUND 3000J/KG. WITH
JUICY AIR IN PLACE...TS REFORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES INTO EASTERN MN BY LATE AFTERNOON. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SPELLS
MULTICELLULAR NATURE TO STORMS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. WITH WARM
START TODAY...BOOSTED TEMPERATURES AT A COUPLE SPOTS DUE TO SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.

FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY. UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH COLD POOL
ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA AROUND PEAK HEATING FOR A CHANCE OF SHRA.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES GIVEN UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT AND GIVEN 1000-500MB THICKNESS CRASH OF SOME 20DM
FROM THAT OF TODAY.

REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY AS UPPER AND SURFACE
RIDGE IN PLACE.

.LSE...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

DAS

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-261100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
553 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY.  THIS
WILL CAUSE THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN STALLED OVER THIS PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS TO MOVE EAST.  AS THIS
HAPPENS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THEN CONTINUE ON THROUGH WISCONSIN.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

KRC