Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
242 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT...SUNDAY AND MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.

CURRENTLY AT 18Z...SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BOTH ETA AND GFS LOOK TO HAVE INITIALIZED
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WELL. BIGGEST DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS IS THAT THE ETA CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW THAN THE GFS. WILL TREND TOWARD A SLOWER MOVEMENT
SOLUTION OF THE ETA...THINKING SYSTEM WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING
NORTHEAST AS IT STRENGTHENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON BACKSIDE OF
SURFACE LOW...AS BUFKIT DATA INDICATES MAX WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 40
TO 45 MILES PER HOUR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. ALSO...ETA
PRESSURE GRADIENT FIELD INDICATES 45 TO 60 UBARS/KM ACROSS
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH A
WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY...WITH TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES SUNDAY.

FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE LOW WILL
ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE LARGE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. ETA INDICATES 24 HOUR QPF TOTALS OF
OVER 3 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA...
WHERE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THOUGH NOSE OF 1200 J/KG SURFACE BASED CAPE AND -3
LIS EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS FAYETTE...CLAYTON...GRANT...CRAWFORD
AND RICHLAND COUNTIES FROM THIS EVENING TO AROUND 06Z TONIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE REGION TO SEE WINDS
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH WEST TO EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY. ETA INDICATES WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER WITH SHORTWAVE. WILL
TAKE OUT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND LEAVE CHANCES IN
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS ETA AGREES MORE WITH THE ECMWF/ENSEMBLES AS PER
HPC.  PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD AND ONLY DID
MINOR TWEAKS.

TUESDAY NIGHT SATURDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF EASTERN PACIFIC LONG WAVE TROUGH TUESDAY.
00Z SATURDAY GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE AND
MOVES IT QUICKER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE 12Z
FRIDAY ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH SHORTWAVE. WILL CONTINUE WITH
SMALL POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORTWAVE CUTS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO REGION.

.LSE...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY...LATE TONIGHT
         AND SUNDAY...IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-
         MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ032>034 -041>044-053>055-061.
       WIND ADVISORY...SUNDAY...WIZ017-029.

DTJ

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-111100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1218 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE
NORTHEAST KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS
EVENING GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A BLACK RIVER FALLS...TO
LA CROSSE...TO CHARLES CITY LINE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. LATE TONIGHT...STRONG WEST
AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
BE AROUND 30 MPH WITH WIND GUST TO 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ON SUNDAY...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN OPEN AREAS AND ON RIDGETOPS. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER WISCONSIN. TWO OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SOME LOCATIONS. WITH GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT
RAINS...THIS COULD CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS ON AREA CREEKS...STREAMS
AND RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MIGHT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. ALSO...WIND GUST REPORTS ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS...WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

BOYNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
0453 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0433 PM    4 NW OSAGE                IA   0.75 IN HAIL
05/10/03   MITCHELL

DTJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
0503 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0455 PM    LE ROY                    MN   0.75 IN HAIL
05/10/03   MOWER

DTJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
0532 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0524 PM    14 E BOSCOBEL             WI   0.75 IN HAIL
05/10/03   GRANT

DTJ