Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 AM WED OCT 29 2003

.DISCUSSION...
THE QUICK-HITTING SYSTEM CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA, WAS WELL ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE MODELS
TO LEAVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL, MAINLY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
IN ABOUT A 12-HOUR TIME PERIOD.  TUESDAYS ZONE FORECAST WAS DRAWN
UP IN LINE WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE, WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE ON THE LATEST RUN.  WELL BE STAYING CLOSE TO IT, AND LEAVING
THE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA AND TIME FRAME THAT IT
WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED FOR.

THE LATEST ETA MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY IS
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE AVIATION OR NESTED GRID.  WELL BE
GOING ABOVE THE ETA.  DOING SO WOULD BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS ZONES.  MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 50
DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

SOME OF THE MODELS, PARTICULARLY THE AVIATION INDICATES SOME LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES TONIGHT.  THE NESTED
GRID AND AVIATION PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION SUGGEST ABOUT A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT.  WELL PROBABLY INTRODUCE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY.  WIDESPREAD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S ARE FORECAST BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE, AS INDICATED IN TUESDAY
ZONES.  SO, NO CHANGES.

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A FINE DAY.  LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY
COOL.  HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S, BUT COULD EXCEED 60 IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY.

WITH MAJOR TROUGHING IN THE WEST AND MAJOR RIDGING IN THE EAST
FORECAST FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK, THE STORM TRACK WILL BE ACROSS
CANADA.  THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE
OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL RISE TO FROM 9 TO 13 DEGREES
CELSIUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, DEPENDING ON THE MODEL, WITH 1000 TO
500 MILLIBAR THICKNESS VALUES ABOVE 5600 METERS.  THUS VERY MILD
CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE A GOOD BET.  EVEN THE USUAL SOLAR INHIBITING
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS, WHICH TYPICALLY MAR THE MORNINGS THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR, MAY BE MINIMIZED BY AT LEAST A BIT OF A SOUTHWEST BREEZE
(AT LEAST FOR FRIDAY).  THIS IS SUGGESTED ESPECIALLY BY THE ETA
MODEL WHICH HAS FORECAST THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGION.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A COOL FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE
NORTHERN OR CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.  HOWEVER, THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH A SURFACE RIDGE AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE
QUITE LIGHT.  THE CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL KEEPS IT DRY THIS WEEKEND,
AND THE AVIATION ONLY HAD MINOR PRECIPITATION FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES.  FOR NOW, WELL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AS OUTLINED IN TUESDAYS ZONES.

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS...RAIN AND FOG WL PERSIST ACRS
MUCH OF TAF AREA TIL ERLY AFT. TAF NIL FOR KGFL. KALB WL HAVE IFR
CNDTNS BTWN 08Z AND 16Z...AFT 16Z CNDTNS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR...AFT
19Z VFR CNDTNS...AFT 01Z MVFR CNDTNS AS SOM LAKE BANDS AFFECT AREA.
KPOU WL HAVE IFR CNDTNS TIL 15Z WITH MVFR CNDTNS BTWN 15Z AND 18Z
AND VFR CNDTNS AFT 18Z EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CNDTNS BTWN
00Z AND 03Z.

.HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY (EXCEPTING THE CATSKILLS).  FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA
AVERAGES JUST SHY OF 3 INCHES.  LESS RAIN IS FORECAST TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY WHERE FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 2
INCHES (OR NEAR 1.6 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS).  THE FLOOD WATCH
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ON THE NEXT ZONE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTH AND
EAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  AFTER THE WET SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH TODAY, DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD, PROBABLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND THE RIVERS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO RECOVER.

.ALY...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM TODAY FOR THE
CATSKILLS (INCLUDING SCHOHARIE COUNTY), MID HUDSON VALLEY, TACONICS
(INCLUDING SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY), LITCHFIELD COUNTY, BERKSHIRE
COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

HEMMERICH

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>
084-VTZ013>015-290000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
407 AM EST WED OCT 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
4 PM TODAY

IN NEW YORK THE WATCH IS FOR...

COLUMBIA...DUTCHESS...RENSSELAER...SCHOHARIE...ULSTER...SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON

IN VERMONT THE WATCH IS FOR...

BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM.

IN MASSACHUSETTS THE WATCH IS FOR...

BERKSHIRE

IN CONNECTICUT THE WATCH IS FOR...

LITCHFIELD

AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WERE FALLING FROM THE LOWER CATSKILLS INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE WATCH AREA BEFORE RAIN TAPERS
OFF AROUND NOON.  THESE AREAS EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY
SWELLING MANY TRIBUTARIES TO VERY CLOSE TO BANKFULL.

.DAYS TWO THOUGH SEVEN...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MOST OF THIS TIME.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS MIGHT BE ACTIVATED LATER
THIS MORNING IF WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS IMMINENT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1051 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0935 AM    TORRINGTON                CT   FLOODING
10/29/03   LITCHFIELD                     3 SMALL CREEKS FLOODING

0950 AM    WINSTED                   CT   FLOODING
10/29/03   LITCHFIELD                     MAD CREEK FLOODING

1030 AM    GUILDERLAND               NY   FLOODING
10/29/03   ALBANY                         EXTENSIVE FLOODING ON RT
                                          20 - WESTERN AVENUE NEAR
                                          STUYVESANT PLAZA.

NYZ050-291700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1040 AM EST WED OCT 29 2003

IN SOUTHERN SARATOGA COUNTY...ROUTES 4 AND 32 ARE CLOSED BETWEEN
MECHANICVILLE AND WATERFORD. REPORTS INDICATE ABOUT 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
WATER ON THE ROADWAY...AND PART OF THE ROAD MAY HAVE BEEN WASHED OUT
NEAR BROOKWOOD ROAD. THE HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...AND
THE FLOODING ALONG THE ROADWAY WILL IMPROVE BY NOON.