Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 18, 2002, 3:16 PM MST for Santa Cruz County, Arizona. It was in force for 29 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 18, 2002, 3:16 PM MST (22:16 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 18, 2002, 3:45 PM MST
- In force
- 29 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Santa Cruz County, AZ
The radar
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 71 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1010 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -157 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2013 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 1 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -62 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -20 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
337
WUUS55 KTWC 182216
SVRTWC
AZC023-182245-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
315 PM MST SUN AUG 18 2002
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY IN ARIZONA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NOGALES
* UNTIL 345 PM MST
* AT 305 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF NOGALES...OR NEAR RIO
RICO...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.
THIS WARNING REPLACES THE PREVIOUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR
THIS AREA.
LAT...LON 3163 11114 3136 11107 3136 11069 3170 11075What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 18, 2:10 PM MST, 1 hour 6 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 18, 2:10 PM MST, 1 hour 6 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 210 PM MST SUN AUG 18 2002 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL MOVE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEK. .DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED AS EXPECTED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN RAPID AND STRONG OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A VERY WEAK SHEAR PROFILE ALONG WITH A NEARLY NON-EXISTENT STEERING FLOW HAS SEEN THEM DIE IN PLACE WITH LITTLE INCLINATION TO PUSH INTO VALLEY LOCATIONS THUS FAR. WE MAY BE ABLE TO GET LUCKY WITH OUTFLOW IN SOME SPOTS...BUT NOT AS A WIDESPREAD TREND. MOISTURE TRENDS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN EBB FROM THE SOUTH. GOES SOUNDER PW ESTIMATES IN THE 1.2 TO 1.3 INCH RANGE...AND SURFACE DEWPTS HOLDING IN THE 55 TO 60 RANGE (ABOUT 5 DEGREES BETTER THAN YESTERDAY). SO...ITS NOT OVER YET FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NICE COMPLEX ORGANIZING IN NORTHWEST MEXICO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAKNESS IN FLOW. MAKING A PUSH IN OUR DIRECTION...COULD INFLUENCE STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SOUTH IN THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE HIGH REFORMS TO OUR EAST AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES...WELL GET THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR CONVECTION BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER THE AREA WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE ROTATING THROUGH AROUND THE HIGH. AFTER THAT...STANDARD SEASONAL THUNDERSTORM FORECAST WITH DRY WESTERLY COMPONENT TRYING TO PUSH INTO FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS FROM A DEVELOPING WEST COAST TROUGH. MOST OF OUR AREA SHOULD MAINTAIN A MOIST THUNDERSTORM FLOW. M TWC...NONE.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 18, 10:53 AM MST, 4 hours 23 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-190700- SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 1145 AM MST SUN AUG 18 2002 .SYNOPSIS...A TYPICAL DAY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME STORMS WILL MOVE INTO VALLEY LOCATIONS...BUT A WEAK SHEAR PROFILE AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT MAY INHIBIT THIS PROCESS. EXPECT THE CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS AND 1 INCH OR GREATER RAINFALL TO BOTH BE SUPERIOR TO SATURDAY AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGY. .DISCUSSION...12Z KTUS SOUNDING MOISTURE PROFILE PROBABLY A LITTLE HOKEY AS PER THE MORNING AFD. EVEN SO...THE MOISTURE TREND WILL INDEED BE UP OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS AS MOISTURE SEEPS IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME SURGE SIGNATURE CONTINUES AT YUMA...BUT NOT GANGBUSTERS. DECENT STORMS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS USUAL. A LESS-THAN-FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE AND STEERING FLOW MAY SHORTEN THE LIFE OF STORMS WHILE ALSO KEEPING THEM CLOSER TO HIGHER TERRAIN IN GENERAL...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. INDIVIDUAL CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 8 MPH.
Special weather statement, Aug 18, 11:45 AM MST, 3 hours 31 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-190700- SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 1145 AM MST SUN AUG 18 2002 .SYNOPSIS...A TYPICAL DAY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME STORMS WILL MOVE INTO VALLEY LOCATIONS...BUT A WEAK SHEAR PROFILE AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT MAY INHIBIT THIS PROCESS. EXPECT THE CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS AND 1 INCH OR GREATER RAINFALL TO BOTH BE SUPERIOR TO SATURDAY AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGY. .DISCUSSION...12Z KTUS SOUNDING MOISTURE PROFILE PROBABLY A LITTLE HOKEY AS PER THE MORNING AFD. EVEN SO...THE MOISTURE TREND WILL INDEED BE UP OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS AS MOISTURE SEEPS IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME SURGE SIGNATURE CONTINUES AT YUMA...BUT NOT GANGBUSTERS. DECENT STORMS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS USUAL. A LESS-THAN-FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE AND STEERING FLOW MAY SHORTEN THE LIFE OF STORMS WHILE ALSO KEEPING THEM CLOSER TO HIGHER TERRAIN IN GENERAL...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. INDIVIDUAL CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 8 MPH.
Local storm report, Aug 18, 2:51 PM MST, 25 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON ARIZONA
0251 PM MST SUN AUG 18 2002
TIME (MST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0232 PM NOGALES AZ 60 MPH TSTM GUST
08/18/02 SANTA CRUZThe office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 3:25 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Santa Cruz | 95 min |
| Aug 18, 3:25 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Santa Cruz | 35 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.