Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
345 PM CST WED JAN 23 2002

COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED AHEAD OF IT.  THE FRONT
SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT BRINGING AN END TO
THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM THREAT.  ETA QPF SUGGESTS RAIN COULD
CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.  AVN MOS POPS SUGGEST SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW BUT
MOST OF THE MOISTURE BY THEN WILL BE MID LEVEL SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH.
CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  RETURN FLOW
BEGINS FROM THURSDAY ON INTO THE WEAKEND.  SHOULD SEE A WARMING
TREND.  THE NEXT COOL DOWN AND THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  THE MRF SHOWS A COLD FRONT WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FCSTID = 17
TUL   30  45  26  53 /  30  10   0   0
FSM   35  45  26  52 /  70  20   0   0
MLC   36  47  30  54 /  70  20   0   0
BVO   28  44  24  53 /  30  10   0   0
FYV   32  44  22  50 /  70  10   0   0
BYV   32  44  22  50 /  70  10   0   0
MIO   30  44  22  50 /  60  10   0   0
MKO   33  47  28  54 /  60  10   0   0
F10   33  47  28  54 /  60  10   0   0
HHW   38  50  32  57 /  70  10   0   0

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.
ABBAS

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CST WED JAN 23 2002

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A MCALESTER TO
FAYETTEVILLE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS PRIOR TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THE FAVORED AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SOUTH OF A MCALESTER TO FAYETTEVILLE LINE.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.  THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA
TO BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA.  THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...WITH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES INCREASING
OVER SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC THURSDAY

AREA 1...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MCALESTER TO FAYETTEVILLE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...80
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...40
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...30

THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK.  PROBABILITIES ARE IN
PERCENT.  SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER
WIND/TORNADO DAMAGE AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
342 PM CST WED JAN 23 2002

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0325 PM    QUINTON                   OK    .88 INCH HAIL
01/23/02   PITTSBURG