Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 246, NWS Tulsa, OK

August 13, 2002Adair County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 13, 2002, 9:54 AM CDT for Adair County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 51 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Aug 13, 2002, 9:54 AM CDT (14:54 UTC)
Expired
Aug 13, 2002, 10:45 AM CDT
In force
51 min
Issued by
NWS Tulsa, OK
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Adair County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Aug 13, 10:00 AM CDTThunderstorm Wind 61 EProctor, OKThunderstorm winds estimated at 70 miles an hour blew down trees.

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 2.9 hours before the alert went out and 128 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2002-08-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1534 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2002-08-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 203 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1534 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-78 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
734 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
203 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
228 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

142 
WUUS54 KTSA 131454
SVRTUL
OKC001-131545-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
954 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  ADAIR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT

* AT 954 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 2
  MILES EAST OF PROCTOR...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...BARON...
  CHRISTIE...PROCTOR...WESTVILLE AND WATTS.

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNED AREA. STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM
HAS PASSED.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.

LAT...LON 3609 9481 3586 9481 3587 9450 3612 9455

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 13, 3:25 AM CDT, 6 hours 29 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 13, 3:25 AM CDT, 6 hours 29 minutes before
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
325 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2002

...RETRANSMISSION

COLD-POOL DRIVEN MCS MOVED INTO NE OK MUCH QUICKER THAN ANY OF THE
NUMERICAL MODELS (AND THIS FORECASTER) HAD ANTICIPATED. NRN END
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER NE OK WITH GUST FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO TULSA...WHILE LOW-LEVEL JET IS MAINTAINING STRONG STORMS
ALG ITS SRN EDGE IN CNTRL OK. SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL N
OF THE FORECAST AREA...STRETCHING FROM SRN IA-SCNTRL KS-TX PANHANDLE
AT 08Z. HAVE NOTED AN INCREASE IN POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION OVER KS
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO SHARP MID-LEVEL
TROF/LARGE SCALE UVV.

EXPECT INITIAL MCS TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING...LEAVING A
PRONOUNCED SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  EVOLUTION OF ANY
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT IS REALLY IN QUESTION...BUT CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABE WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
AND IMPRESSIVE LIFT AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H25 JET. WONT
GET TOO FANCY WITH POPS TODAY...AND WILL GENERALLY BROADBRUSH LIKELY
POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING PRECIP OVER SE OK/WRN AR MAINLY THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS.

WEDNESDAY SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT AUGUST DAY...WITH BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. WARM-UP WILL COMMENCE BY THU
AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST PACKAGE BEYOND THURSDAY.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
TUL  80  62  87  65 /  70  20  10  10
FSM  88  65  88  66 /  70  40  10  10
MLC  87  66  88  66 /  70  40  10  10
BVO  80  60  87  63 /  70  20  10  10
FYV  81  61  84  58 /  70  40  10  10
BYV  79  59  82  62 /  70  40  10  10
MIO  78  59  84  63 /  70  20  10  10
MKO  83  63  87  66 /  70  20  10  10
F10  83  64  88  66 /  70  20  10  10
HHW  89  68  89  70 /  70  50  20  10

FORECAST ID = 18

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 13, 4:25 AM CDT, 5 hours 29 minutes before
OKZ054>067-131000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
425 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2002

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 601 THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR...OSAGE...
WASHINGTON...NOWATA...OTTAWA...CRAIG...DELAWARE...ROGERS...PAWNEE...
MAYES...TULSA...CREEK...WAGONER...OKMULGEE AND OKFUSKEE COUNTIES...
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AND A FEW GUSTS TO 40
MPH ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED.
Special weather statement, Aug 13, 6:00 AM CDT, 3 hours 54 minutes before
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-141200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
   NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY...

A WEAKENING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...LEAVING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE
AREA. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN KANSAS LATER THIS
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
THE INTERACTION OF THE FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP
TODAY. INCREASING WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CAUSE SOME STORMS
TO BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WHERE SURFACE HEATING WILL RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF OF INTERSTATE 44 THIS AFTERNOON.

.DISCUSSION...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FONT PUSHING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS TODAY WILL INTERACT WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES UP TO 2500 J/KG WILL
DEVELOP MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR BY THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S.
ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED AS THIS AREA ALSO FALLS UNDER THE
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A 70 KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK AHEAD OF A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS SHOULD
EVOLVE INTO A LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

RISK TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC TUESDAY

AREA 1...
PROBABILITY...100
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...40
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...10

RISK AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO
DAMAGE AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE OR LARGER HAIL.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 13, 12:33 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAOsage, Pawnee57 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.