Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 244, NWS Tulsa, OK

August 10, 2002Tulsa County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 10, 2002, 3:46 PM CDT for Tulsa County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 44 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 10, 2002, 3:46 PM CDT (20:46 UTC)
Expired
Aug 10, 2002, 4:30 PM CDT
In force
44 min
Issued by
NWS Tulsa, OK
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Tulsa County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 42 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Lamont, OK (KLMN), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 153 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lamont, OK at 12:00Z on 2002-08-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 97 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lamont, OK at 12:00Z on 2002-08-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -12 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
97 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-204 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1542 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-12 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-74 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

699 
WUUS54 KTSA 102046
SVRTUL
OKC143-102130-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
345 PM CDT SAT AUG 10 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN TULSA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 345 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER
  GLENPOOL...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...BIXBY...
  JENKS...GLENPOOL AND BROKEN ARROW.

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNED AREA. STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM
HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3606 9608 3588 9612 3587 9579 3604 9575

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 10, 10:55 AM CDT, 4 hours 51 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 10, 10:55 AM CDT, 4 hours 51 minutes before
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
1055 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2002

15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS IS A CHALLENGE TO UNTANGLE...HOWEVER
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SHED SOME LIGHT ON PLACEMENT OF SMALL SCALE
BOUNDARIES.  WEST TEXAS MCS HAS PLACED A BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY APPARENT ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA PER VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY.  ONGOING CONVECTION
IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA APPEARS TO BE ORIENTED ALONG THIS FEATURE.  LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MADE A NOTICEABLE RETURN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
24HR DEW POINT RISES AOA 10 DEG F IN MANY LOCALES.

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HANGING BACK INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH APPARENT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX SITUATED
ACROSS SW KANSAS ON TAIL END OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS.  THIS
FEATURE WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY AS RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF UPPER JET ALSO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TO PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  SEVERE POTENTIAL
QUESTIONABLE GIVEN VERY WEAK WINDS IN THE 800-600MB LEVEL...HOWEVER
ADEQUATE SURFACE HEATING AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD
ADEQUATE SURFACE BASED CAPE FOR POTENTIAL PULSE SEVERE WITH WET
DOWNBURSTS BEING THE GREATEST THREAT.

UPDATE WISE...WILL TREND POPS UP AREAWIDE WITH HIGHEST POPS ALONG
SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE CURRENT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.
TEMPS WILL BE A LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENT...BUT DON/T EXPECT TOO MUCH
CHANGE.

FORECAST ID= 07

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 10, 1:00 PM CDT, 2 hours 46 minutes before
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT SAT AUG 10 2002

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
   OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A GENERAL
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.  LOCATIONS
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM FAYETTEVILLE TO MCALESTER WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES...HOWEVER AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
HELP IGNITE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY
LATE AFTERNOON.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

.DISCUSSION...
NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  A SMALL SCALE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO APPROACH THE
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON PROVIDING ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...HOWEVER STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY COLLAPSING THUNDERSTORM.  VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS WITH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS POSSIBLE.

RISK TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC SUNDAY

AREA 1...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...70
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...10
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...2

RISK AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL. PROBABILITIES ARE IN
PERCENT. SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO
DAMAGE AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.