Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
400 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2002

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON.  A COUPLE HAVE BEEN SEVERE.  EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.  WILL CARRY ISOLATED
WORDING IN ZONES.  SIMILAR DAY ON TAP FOR FRIDAY BUT HOPE MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE EASTERN CWA.

SHOULD DRY OUT OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...MAY STILL SEE AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN THE TERRAIN AREAS.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ON THE RISE AS WELL.  MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL IN QUESTION AS AVN
BUILD BIG COMPLEX IN KS AND TRIES TO MOVE SOUTH.  WILL KEEP CURRENT
EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO ADD POPS THEN.  ECMWF AND GFS
BRING WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY SO
ADDED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THEN.  OTHERWISE...MAJORITY OF
EXTENDED UNCHANGED.

TUL  74  93  75  93 /  20  10  10  10
FSM  72  92  73  92 /  20  10  10  10
MLC  72  91  73  93 /  20  10  10  10
BVO  71  93  72  93 /  20  10  10  10
FYV  67  86  69  87 /  20  20  20  10
BYV  67  86  69  86 /  20  20  20  10
MIO  70  90  71  90 /  20  20  20  10
MKO  71  92  72  92 /  20  10  10  10
F10  71  92  72  92 /  20  10  10  10
HHW  72  91  73  91 /  20  10  10  10

HOWIESON
FORECAST ID= 44

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
115 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2002

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER EXTREME
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER EXTREME EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF TULSA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MISSOURI
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
510 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2002

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH
   EARLY EVENING...

A LINE OF STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE ISOLATED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES NEARING 3000 J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID
STRENGTHENING OF THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS...HOWEVER THE LACK OF
SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT SUSTAINED STORM CORES.  AS A
SURFACE COLD POOL STRENGTHENS BENEATH THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINES WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.  THE
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

RISK TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC FRIDAY JULY 19TH

AREA 1...EAST OF A LINE FROM SILOAM SPRINGS...TO STRICKLER...TO JETHRO
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...100
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...20
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...5

RISK AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL. PROBABILITIES ARE IN
PERCENT. SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO
DAMAGE AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.