Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
300 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2002

MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN
MN INTO SOUTHWESTERN NE. WITH A SFC TROF ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND INTO
MO. WILL SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING THAT ARE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY ACROSS KS AND MO WILL LIKELY FORM IN A COMPLEX AND CLIP
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR LATE TONIGHT...WILL GO
WITH HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. A OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/PRE-FRONTAL TROF WL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AN
WILL SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000
J/KG RANGE AND LI VALUES AROUND -6. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
DROPS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SO WILL CONTINUE SOME TYPE
OF POPS THROUGH FRIDAY.

COOLED DOWN TEMPS A TAD IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST. MAY
HAVE TO ADD SOME POPS FOR WEEKEND FORECAST AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IF
AVN IS CORRECT AND THE UPPER LOW BASICALLY CUTS OFF ACROSS OK.

TUL  75  91  70  89 /  40  50  30  20
FSM  74  92  71  91 /  40  50  40  30
MLC  73  93  71  90 /  30  50  40  30
BVO  72  91  68  89 /  40  50  30  20
FYV  70  87  67  84 /  50  50  30  20
BYV  72  85  68  84 /  60  50  30  20
MIO  73  87  68  89 /  50  50  30  20
MKO  75  91  71  91 /  40  50  30  20
F10  75  93  71  92 /  30  50  40  30
HHW  76  93  73  91 /  30  50  40  30

FORECAST ID= 10
.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
145 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2002

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING AS STRONG DAYTIME HEATING MAKES THE ATMOSPHERE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS EVENING...A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS
MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. THE COMPLEX WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST...
AND COULD AFFECT EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
WEAKENING BY THE TIME THEY REACH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TONIGHT...BUT WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. INCREASING WIND FIELDS...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE
KANSAS/MISSOURI THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH FROM KANSAS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A GREATER
CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.