Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
245 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2002

STRONG SHORTWAVE ENTERING WRN OK ATTM. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN N
TX...AND ROUGHLY THE SRN HALF OF OK. THIS CONVECTION IS HELPING
BEING SUSTAINED BY MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPES...AND THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 70KT H3 SPEED MAX. WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
INTO THE MORNING HRS...BEFORE SYNOPTIC FORCING MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...PLAN ON CARRYING POPS ACROSS ALL ZNS...LOWEST IN THE N AND
HIGHEST IN THE S. RETURN FLOW SETS UP ONCE AGAIN LATER
TODAY...ALLOWING RICHER LLVL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE CWFA.

TNGT...FCST BECOMES TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN MCS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. AM NOT CERTAIN HOW FAR E
THIS COMPLEX WL TRAVEL...BUT WL GO AHEAD AND ADD LOW POPS FOR THE
OVERNGT HRS TNGT. WITH INCREASING LLVL FLOW AND MOISTURE...MINS TNGT
WL BE PRETTY WARM...AND HV NUDGED TEMPS UP A BIT FOR TNGT.

A WK UPR LOW WL PUSH OUT INTO THE PLAINS BEGINNING MON...AND WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE...FEEL THAT CONVECTIVE THREAT WL CONTINUE...AGAIN
WITH BEST CHCS TO THE N CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. AS THE UPR LOW
MOVES ACROSS OK TUE...PLAN ON MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...AND CURRENT LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD ATTM. MAY HV TO LOOK AT
HVY RAFL POTENTIAL IN THE LATER PERIODS. DON/T SEE THAT TSRA CHCS WL
LOWER UNTIL AT LEAST THE END OF THE WK...AS UPR LOW WL BE STUBBORN
TO PUSH TO THE SE OF THE AREA. OVERALL SVR THREAT DOESN/T LOOK VERY
HIGH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS ANY SVR WL BE DRIVEN BY INSTABILITY
AND BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE. WIND FIELDS WL BE VERY WK WITH THE UPR
LOW IN THE AREA...SO ORGANIZED SVR THREAT REMAINS LOW.

NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED ATTM...CURRENT FCST HAS THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WELL IN HAND.

ISC GRIDS ALREADY SENT.

MANNING
FCSTID = 24

TUL  81  65  85  66 /  20  20  40  40
FSM  83  66  85  66 /  40  10  30  40
MLC  84  65  85  66 /  40  10  30  40
BVO  82  64  85  66 /  20  20  40  40
FYV  79  62  81  64 /  20  10  40  40
BYV  81  62  81  64 /  20  10  40  40
MIO  81  63  83  64 /  20  10  40  40
MKO  82  64  84  66 /  30  20  40  40
F10  82  65  84  66 /  30  20  40  40
HHW  84  66  85  66 /  50  10  30  40

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
515 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2002

...A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I-40...

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE
NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.  THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MAINLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN
AREAS GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH OF I-40.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY AROUND MIDDAY.  ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT WITH ANY STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA.  THE DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITIES HAVE RESULTED IN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVER AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 THIS
MORNING.  THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY AROUND MIDDAY AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TO THE EAST.

BY LATER TONIGHT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL OUT TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE DURING THE DAY.  STORMS OUT TO THE WEST ARE LIKELY TO FORM
A COMPLEX THAT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER AS THE STORMS MOVE AWAY FROM THE GREATER
INSTABILITY OUT WEST THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC MONDAY

AREA 1...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SOUTH OF I-40 THIS MORNING.
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...100
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...50
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...20

THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO DAMAGE
AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA