Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
325 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2002

COLD FRONT AT 20Z WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF I-44.  BOUNDARY WAS
ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM GROVE...TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
TULSA COUNTY...THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKMULGEE AND OKFUSKEE
COUNTIES.  FRONT HAS REMAINED VERY SLOW MOVING THROUGH THE DAY AND A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  WILL WATCH TRENDS TILL ZONES TIME...THEN MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM
JUST A FEW COUNTIES ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE AREA FROM THE WATCH.
DO SEE ADDED DEVELOPMENT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THOUGH...SO WILL
LIKELY LEAVE AS IS FOR NOW.

DO EXPECT THE FRONT TO DEVELOP A STRONGER PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST
LATER TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE NOW OVER CO/NM CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
WILL CONFINE POPS TO THE FIRST PERIOD ONLY...WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CHANCE POPS BEHIND THE FRONT.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA SHOULD HAVE A FEW PLEASANT DAYS
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.  NEXT MENTION OF PRECIP WILL BE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...THEN DRY ONCE AGAIN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

FCSTID = 4
TUL   50  69  45  74 /  40   0   0   0
FSM   55  70  44  74 /  70  10   0   0
MLC   54  71  46  76 /  70   0   0   0
BVO   48  69  44  74 /  30   0   0   0
FYV   52  67  40  69 /  70  10   0   0
BYV   52  67  40  69 /  70  10   0   0
MIO   51  68  43  72 /  70   0   0   0
MKO   53  70  46  75 /  70   0   0   0
F10   53  70  46  75 /  70   0   0   0
HHW   58  73  47  78 /  70  10   0   0

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
115 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM MIAMI TO TULSA TO
BRISTOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO 1.75 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS UP
TO 65 MILES AN HOUR.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA.  THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DESTABILIZE AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES.  LARGE HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF GOLFBALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
IF THE STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED...DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY END BY MIDNIGHT AS
DRIER MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC MONDAY

AREA 1...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...90
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...70
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...20

THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO DAMAGE
AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

.OTHER HAZARDS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS LIKELY TO RECEIVE GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
343 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0311 PM    2 NORTH PETTIT            OK   .88 INCH HAIL 05/12/02
           CHEROKEE                       DIME TO NICKEL HAIL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
350 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2002

...CORRECTION FOR DATE GROUP...

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0311 PM    2 NORTH PETTIT            OK   .88 INCH HAIL
05/12/02   CHEROKEE                       DIME TO NICKEL HAIL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
407 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0400 PM    5 N CHOUTEAU              OK   .75 INCH HAIL
05/12/02   MAYES                          REPORTED BY EMA

0404 PM    PRYOR                     OK   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/12/02   MAYES                          REPORTED BY EMA