Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Tulsa, OK

March 8, 2002Franklin County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 8, 2002, 9:55 PM CST for Franklin County, Arkansas. It was in force for 50 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Mar 8, 2002, 9:55 PM CST (03:55 UTC)
Expired
Mar 8, 2002, 10:45 PM CST
In force
50 min
Issued by
NWS Tulsa, OK
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Franklin County, AR

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 43 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Mar 8, 9:55 PM CSTThunderstorm Wind 61 ECecil, ARThunderstorm winds estimated at 70 miles an hour blew a tree down.

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Mar 8, 9:30 PM CSTTornado WatchSPC5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 3.9 hours before the alert went out and 164 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2002-03-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 217 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2002-03-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 282 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
217 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-139 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
955 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
282 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
414 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.2
Supercell composite
0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS54 KTSA 090355
SVRTUL
ARC047-090445-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
954 PM CST FRI MAR 8 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 1045 PM CST

* AT 954 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
  A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRANCH TO 13 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF BRANCH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...OZARK...
  BRANCH...DENNING...ALTUS AND WIEDERKEHR VILLAGE.

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH CAN BE 
EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP SUDDENLY
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3544 9409 3514 9407 3538 9369 3576 9368

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 8, 3:30 PM CST, 6 hours 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 8, 3:30 PM CST, 6 hours 25 minutes before
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
330 PM CST FRI MAR 8 2002

A FEW BREAKS SHOWING UP IN THE CLOUD DECK THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.  WINDS HAVE KEPT UP THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING.  WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING.
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM ROUGHLY 10 PM THROUGH 6
AM SATURDAY.  ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH A SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH WITH THE FRONT
TONIGHT.  WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE CWA TONIGHT.  FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MORNING.  SKIES SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY
ACCORDING TO MODELS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR SATURDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH NEXT SYSTEM.  SCALED BACK TEMPS IN EXTENDED A BIT BUT KEPT A
WARMING TREND GOING THROUGH THURSDAY.  NEXT SYSTEM GETTING CLOSE TO
AREA ON FRIDAY AND MAY NEED SOME POPS FOR FRIDAY BUT KEEP DRY FOR
NOW PENDING ANOTHER RUN OR TWO.

HOWIESON
FCSTID = 44

TUL   37  51  27  63 /  60  10   0   0
FSM   45  55  25  59 /  70  10   0   0
MLC   43  56  27  62 /  60  10   0   0
BVO   34  48  25  62 /  60  10   0   0
FYV   41  50  22  58 /  70  10   0   0
BYV   41  50  22  58 /  70  10   0   0
MIO   38  46  25  61 /  70  10   0   0
MKO   40  52  27  62 /  70  10   0   0
F10   37  51  27  63 /  60  10   0   0
HHW   45  59  29  63 /  60  10   0   0

.TSA...
AR...WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
ZONES ARZ001>002...ARZ010>011.

OK...WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ZONES
OKZ054>071.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Mar 8, 9:00 PM CST, 55 minutes before
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
900 PM CST FRI MAR 8 2002

...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
   AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE
EVENING...WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT AND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
THE FRONT PASSES.  THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE.  THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE FURTHER
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TULSA /NPWTUL/ FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA AROUND 9 PM.  LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED
CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY.

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD.  THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER WILL
MAXIMIZE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WHILE
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO BE INHIBITED BY A WARM LAYER
ALOFT.  STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC SATURDAY

AREA 1...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...100
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...70
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...30

AREA 2...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...80
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...40
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...10

THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO DAMAGE
AND/OR GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA
Special weather statement, Mar 8, 9:25 PM CST, 30 minutes before
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
925 PM CST FRI MAR 8 2002

...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
   OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE FORMED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED TORNADOES PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.  THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE
EVENING...WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT AND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
THE FRONT PASSES.  THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE.  THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE FURTHER
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TULSA /NPWTUL/ FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA AROUND 9 PM.  LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED
CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY.

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD.  THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER WILL
MAXIMIZE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WHILE
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO BE INHIBITED BY A WARM LAYER
ALOFT.  STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC SATURDAY

AREA 1...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...100
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...70
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...30

AREA 2...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...80
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...40
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...10

THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO DAMAGE
AND/OR GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 9, 1:00 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSABenton, Washington60 min
Mar 9, 1:51 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACrawford, Sebastian69 min
Mar 9, 1:57 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSABenton, Washington48 min
Mar 9, 2:10 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACarroll, Franklin, Madison65 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.