Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
3 PM CDT WED APR 17 2002

MAIN PROBLEMS ARE CONSIDERATIONS OF STG CONVECTION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THEN AMT OF COOLING AND PCPN CHCS INTO THE WEEKEND.

VERY WARM ON THURSDAY WITH SOME READINGS NEAR RECORD HIGH LVLS...AM
USING MESO-ETA SFC TEMPERATURES FOR MAX TEMP GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY.

RATHER SLIM CHCS FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT. NOT QUITE SLIM ENUF TO
PRECLUDE MENTION...BUT WILL HOLD WITH MINIMAL POPS FOR THREE
REASONS...ALL OF WHICH MAY BE RATHER WEAK. FIRST IS WARMFRONTAL
BOUNDARY. LATEST PROFILERS FROM 19Z SHOW BNDRY JUST OFF THE SFC
(FIRST SVRL GATES OF PROFILERS) SHOW IT ALG NRN BORDER. ALL SMALLER
GRID MODELS INCLUDING MESO-ETA AND WORKSTATION ETA SHOW SFC FNT MVG
RAPIDLY NORTH REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. COULD HAVE A STORM OR TWO
ALONG NRN BORDER EARLY BUT MORE LIKELY TO NORTH OF CWA. SECOND
REASON IS CONVECTION TRYING TO GET ITSELF TOGETHER ALG DRY LINE WRN
OK. THIS COULD DVLP FURTHER NORTH NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN MAY TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CWA LATE EVENING. HOWEVER WOULD NOT EXPECT THIS TO
MAKE MUCH PROGRESS EAST...IF IT EVEN MAKES IT THIS FAR. NOTE AND
AGREE WITH ICT THAT STORMS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT TOO FAR
INTO KS...LET ALONE MY CWA. BUT STILL SOME REMOTE THREAT. PROBABLY
THE BEST THREAT...ALBEIT STILL QUITE SMALL...IS THE THREAT FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION WITHIN THE LOW LVL JET LATER TONIGHT. BUFKIT
SNDGS IMPLY THIS AFT MIDNIGHT WITHIN AREA. IF THIS HAPPENS, THIS
CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO TMRW AM. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH
SLGT CHC FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT...THEN MENTION CONVECTION CNTRL AND
ERN PTN CWA ON THURSDAY. FOLLOWING MESO-ETA LOW LVL MOISTURE
PROFILE... WRN PTN CWA NOT LIKELY TO SEE ANY CONVECTION TMRW SINCE
DRYER AIR LIKELY WORKING IN BY MIDDAY TMRW. QUESTION THEN BECOMES
WHERE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETS UP BY THIS TIME THURSDAY. ALSO
AGREE WITH ICT THAT TMRW COULD BE AN ACTIVE SVR WX DAY. NUMEROUS
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES MOVG OVR AREA LATE IN THE AFTN COULD BE JUST
ENOUGH IMPETUS FOR EXPLOSIVE DVLPMT. GIVEN CURRENT MESO-ETA
FCST...WOULD SUSPECT THAT MAY HAPPEN NEAR OR JUST EAST OF A
SENECA-ABILENE LINE BY MID TO LATE AFTN. CONVECTION WOULD THEN PUSH
EAST OVR REST OF CWA...EXITING SOUTHEASTERN PTN OF CWA AFT MIDNIGHT.

LATER FORECAST PDS PROBLEMATIC TOO. IF HPCS SFC WX DEPICTION IS
RIGHT...CANT SEE MUCH SUPPORT FOR PCPN OVER THE WEEKEND...CERTAINLY
NOT TSTMS. OF COURSE, COULD SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH SOME
OVRRNG...BUT WIDESPREAD PCPN NOT LIKELY. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES BLO CLIMO LIKELY. NICE RECOVERY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IF LESS CLOUDS OCCUR THAN FORECAST...WEEKEND TEMPS WOULD NOT
BE THAT FAR REMOVED FROM CLIMO HIGHS/LOWS...I.E. 60S/40S.

.TOP...NONE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
424 PM CDT WED APR 17 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0915 PM    2 N MORGANVILLE           KS    .75 INCH HAIL
04/16/02   CLAY                            PUBLIC REPORTED DIME
                                           SIZE HAIL.

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-180200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
440 PM CDT WED APR 17 2002

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

A DRY LINE OVER WESTERN KANSAS MAY PUSH JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST EARLY
THIS EVENING TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THEY COULD BE
SEVERE. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.
IF THE STORMS DO NOT FORM BEFORE SUNSET...SEVERE WEATHER WOULD NOT BE
LIKELY.

ANOTHER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL COME LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY LINE WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST
AIR AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. THE
BIGGEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM SENECA TO ABILENE. THIS AREA WOULD BE THREATENED BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE REST OF NORTHEAST AND
EASTCENTRAL KANSAS WOULD BE THREATENED WITH SEVERE WEATHER, THE REST
OF THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAIL AND HIGH WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW TORNADOS COULD NOT BE RULED
OUT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL BROADCAST MEDIA...FOR
THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.