Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN
130 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2002

CORRECTED TO ADD PRELIM NUMBERS.

CURRENTLY: FRONT JUST ENTERING THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN FA. REST OF
THE AREA CONTINUES UNDER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PRODIGIOUS RAINS
DOWN SOUTH CAUSING SOME FLOODING. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ALONG WITH SEVERE THREAT.

FORECAST: FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE TAMPA BAY VICINITY BY SUNSET...
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN GOING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP QUITE A
BIT BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...STIRRING UP THE
SEAS. I WILL ISSUE A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE...EMPHASIZING LATE TONIGHT IN THE SOUTH WHERE IT
WILL TAKE LONGER FOR THE FRONT TO GO THROUGH.

DEEP DRYING SHOULD MOVE IN QUICKLY DURING SUNDAY MORNING...BUT COLD
ADVECTION WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME LOW CLOUDINESS AROUND DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE LITTLE DURING THE DAY AS
COLD ADVECTION REALLY KICKS IN. STIFF BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COOLER.

MODELS SET UP A NICE COLD AIR DRAINAGE PATTERN FOR MONDAY MORNING
WITH LOW TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN...WITH LIGHTER WINDS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY OFF THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT...
WHICH MAY HELP TO KEEP THE MINS A TOUCH ABOVE MONDAY MORNINGS
LEVELS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK NICE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

QUESTIONS CREEP BACK IN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. FOR THE LAST 3 RUNS...
GFS HAS DEVELOPED A CUTOFF IN THE WESTERN GULF...PUMPING UP PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AGAIN. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN LOTS OF CLOUDS AND THE
THREAT OF ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN
CLIMATOLOGY FOR EL NINO EVENTS...AND SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS
SOLUTION FROM LAST NIGHTS UKMET...I WILL HAVE TO MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AND INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF RAIN
THURSDAY IN THE SOUTH AND FRIDAY EVERYWHERE...WITH MAYBE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY.

MARINE: SCA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS WINDS REALLY PICK UP
BEHIND THE FRONT. I WILL GRADUALLY BACK DOWN ON THE WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. I AM NOT READY TO JUMP ON
STRONG WINDS AVN IS ADVERTISING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. I WILL
JUST CONTINUE THE CURRENT 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY. WE CAN GET MORE
DETAILED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
BKV 58/61/34/64 9200
TPA 61/65/43/66 9200
GIF 61/67/43/66 +200
SRQ 63/67/44/67 +200
FMY 65/69/46/70 +300

.TBW...TORNADO WATCH SARASOTA...DESOTO...HIGHLANDS...CHARLOTTE...AND
       LEE COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM.
    ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BONITA BCH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60 NM
       INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.
    ...HEAVY SURF ADVISORY LEVY...CITRUS...HERNANDO...PASCO...
       PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...MANATEE...SARASOTA...CHARLOTTE...AND
       LEE COUNTIES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

ALSHEIMER

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-161600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
605 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING THROUGH THIS
EVENING...
...SCATTERED LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
...HIGH WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOPING TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...

...RAINFALL...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS
MORNING...SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE SUNCOAST BY LATE MORNING.
OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CURRENT DATA SUGGEST STORM TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 5
INCHES...LOCALLY 8 INCHES OR MORE...FROM SARASOTA COUNTY SOUTH BY
EARLY SUNDAY.  ELSEWHERE NEAR THE COAST...2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY 6 INCHES OR MORE.  SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.

RESIDENTS OF THE SUNCOAST...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING TODAY.
STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...INCLUDING FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
OR URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES...LATER TODAY.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
AN APPROACHING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASE THE WINDS.  SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.  A SQUALL LINE MAY PRECEDE THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG IT AS WELL.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND.  ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE.

RESIDENTS...EMERGENCY SERVICES PERSONNEL...THE MEDIA...AND OTHER
INTERESTS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS STORMS
TODAY.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER SOURCES FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

...MARINE HAZARDS...
MARINERS...PARTICULARLY SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS...MAY WANT TO CANCEL
WEEKEND TRIPS INTO THE GULF.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DANGER.

BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE
RISING SEAS AND ROUGH SURF.  SEAS WILL RISE AS HIGH AS 10 FEET NEAR
SHORE...AND UP TO 14 FEET BEYOND 60 NM...BY LATE TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

...COLD WEATHER ON THE WAY SUNDAY NIGHT...

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S ALONG THE NATURE
COAST SUNDAY...AND REMAIN BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ELSEWHERE.  BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET.  READINGS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE 30S NORTH OF TAMPA BAY TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE.  VALUES WILL
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER NEAR THE COAST.

WIND CHILL VALUES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

A MODERATING TREND WILL BEGIN LATER MONDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK.

FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

BSG

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-161830-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1251 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2002

...STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT THE GULF COAST FROM NEW PORT RICHEY
THROGH CEDAR KEY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH...WILL AFFECT YANKEETOWN...OZELLO...LEBANON AND CRYSTAL
RIVER...UNTIL 130 PM EST. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS
POSSIBLE.

THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED COASTAL FLOODING AS THE SQUALL
LINE MOVES ONSHORE.  COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR HIGH WATER
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

SOBIEN

FLZ060>062-065-170215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
320 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2002

THE TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...

CHARLOTTE...LEE...DE SOTO AND SARASOTA.

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VENICE...SARASOTA...PUNTA GORDA...PORT
CHARLOTTE...FORT MYERS...CAPE CORAL AND ARCADIA.

THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...SO THE
WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM. PERIODS OF RAIN...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY...ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING.

FLZ052-057-170315-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
410 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2002

THE TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

HIGHLANDS AND POLK.

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINTER HAVEN...SEBRING...LAKELAND AND
BARTOW.