Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
910 AM EST TUE MAR 12 2002

SYNOPSIS: LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THRU
AR/LA/MS REGION. RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS SEVERAL LINES OF ACTIVE
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE W/ LEADING EDGE ALREADY INTO
W/CNTRL AL TO SE LA. 13Z MSAS HAS STATIONARY FRONT FROM E TN TO LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MS THEN SWWD TO WRN GULF & HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER WRN ATLANTIC. INCREASINGLY MOIST & UNSTABLE SELY FLOW W/
LOCAL PWAT VALUE FROM 0.59 TO 1.35 IN 12 HRS. PLENTY OF LOW & MID
CLOUDS COVER THE SERN U.S. TEMPS WERE MILD W/ READINGS IN THE 60S.

SHORT-TERM: FCST CHALLENGE TODAY IS TIMING OF ACTIVE CONVECTION INTO
OUR CWFA. SYSTEM OVER LOWER MS VALLEY IS PROGRESSIVE W/ LINES OF
SHWRS & TSTMS MOVING ENEWD AROUND 30 MPH. THIS STORM MOTION SHOULD
KEEP 24-HR QPF VALUES AROUND AN INCH. HOWEVER, ECHO TRAINING COULD
BRING THOSE VALUES UP TO TWO INCHES. CURRENT ZONES MENTION HEAVY RAIN
AT TIMES. LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION IS PROJECTED TO ENTER OUR
WRN ZONES (SE AL/ERN FL PNHDL) DURING THE EARLY AFTN, CNTRL ZONES
BY LATE AFTN & ERN ZONES THIS EVENING. WILL MAKE APPROPRIATE TIMING
& POP ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ZONES. IN REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER,
INSTABILITY LOOKS ADEQUATE, BUT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS, I.E. SHEAR,
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. SPC HAS CWFA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL TSTMS.
ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INDIVIDUAL
CONVECTIVE LINES W/ STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.

MARINE: LOCAL BUOY/C-MAN OBS REPORTING SE WINDS 10-15 KTS & SEAS
LESS THAN 3 FT. FURTHER WEST, WINDS & SEAS HAVE NOT INCREASED.
SHORT-RANGE MODELS KEEP WINDS BELOW SCEC CRITERIA TODAY. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO WINDS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

.TLH...
.AL...NONE.
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

MAJ

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-122100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1100 AM EST TUE MAR 12 2002

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD
FRONT FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE TRI-STATE AREA LATER TODAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE. WHILE A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AMOUNTS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA AVERAGE
AROUND AN INCH...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER A WEEK
AGO...HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE NORMALLY
FLOOD-PRONE AREAS.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SKYWARN SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD MONITOR UPDATED
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTING AND ROUGH
SEAS. THEREFORE...BOATERS ARE ADVISED TO STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE VIA OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/ OR
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.

MAJ