Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
205 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2002

TONIGHT: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET... HOWEVER WITH PW VALUES STAYING UP CLOSE TO 2 INCHES
(PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST)... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE... AND
A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING NNE INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT... WILL
LEAVE IN A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE NW WITH
30% SOUTH/EAST. A SULTRY NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

THU: MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOST PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR WELL TO OUR NORTH/
NORTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT... AND IN THE COASTAL AREA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE & AN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAX...
PRIMARILY DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE MOST OF THE CWA IN A
RELATIVE LULL REGION BETWEEN SYSTEMS... WITH A SLIGHTLY LESS MOIST
COLUMN COMPARED TO TODAY AND THEREFORE LESS QPF. WILL HAVE 30% POPS
IN THE WEST & 40% IN THE EAST... CARRIED THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD CUT HIGHS BACK A BIT TO 85 TO 90.

FRI: AVN SHOWS HIGHER QPF DUE TO ITS MORE BULLISH LOW LEVEL JET/
CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AREA. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
INDICATE FAIRLY HIGH POPS ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. HOWEVER
WITH THE BEST VORT ENERGY BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND BACK OVER TN/AR
(GETTING SHEARED OUT)... THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT WE COULD END UP
IN A SPLIT WITH LITTLE RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL NC. THINK WELL SEE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR 30% NW AND 40% POPS ELSEWHERE... BUT CONFIDENCE
ISNT TERRIBLY HIGH. TEMPS AGAIN 85-90.

SAT/SUN: 00Z OP GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD YESTERDAYS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION
OF A DEEPER/SLOWER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND/MIDATLANTIC
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND... IN LINE WITH THE CANADIAN/ECMWF. WHILE
LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO WNW OVER THE NRN/WRN CWA ON
SATURDAY... ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE SERN CWA FOR A CHANCE
OF A SHOWER AS WEAK VORTICITY FROM THE DYING SRN PLAINS UPPER LOW
PASSES BY. THE LACK OF A PUSH FOR THE SRN END OF THE FRONT MAY
NECESSITATE ADDING A POP TO THE SE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL... BUT GIVEN
THE BAGGY NATURE OF THE SYSTEM & UNCERTAIN TIMING... WILL HOLD OFF
FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

MON-WED: THIS PERIOD WILL BE LIKELY DOMINATED BY A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE SLOWLY-DEPARTING TROUGH... AND A BERMUDA
RIDGE NOSING ACROSS THE AREA. GFS/CANADIAN HINT AT RESIDUAL
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS MEANDERING AROUND THE SE U.S. & THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED... BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE DRY/WARM WITH LOWS
68-73 AND HIGHS 89 TO 93.

.RAH...NONE.

HARTFIELD