Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO
230 PM MDT WED AUG 28 2002

...SEVERE WEATHER UNDERWAY...

DISCUSSION TO BE BRIEF...SEVERE WEATHER UNDERWAY.  SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS UNTIL 700
PM MDT...INCLUDING EL PASO...PUEBLO...HUERFANO...LAS ANIMAS AND ALL
COUNTIES EAST TO KANSAS.  SOUTHEAST COLORADO UNDER LEFT FRONT NOSE
OF UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX POKING INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
ALSO...POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO AT THIS HOUR...HEADED INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
ALSO...BOUNDARY OUT OF KANSAS CONVECTION FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING...HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN COLORADO (KIOWA/PROWERS/BENT
COUNTIES)...TRIGGERING TORNADIC STORM THAT VICINITY.  TORNADO
WARNING IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME...WITH ONE PUBLIC SIGHTING NORTH OF
WILEY IN KIOWA COUNTY.

TOMORROW...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS
COLORADO...BUT PERHAPS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AND NORTH OF TODAYS
TRACK...THUS KEEPING ACTIVITY FURTHER WEST AND NORTH.  ALSO...LOOKS
A LITTLE BIT DRIER IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAN TODAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT...AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REBUILDS OVER COLORADO...WITH MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE REGIME NEAR
THE SURFACE.

RETURN OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY STILL LOOKS OK...AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SENDS
WHAT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK SURGE SOUTH INTO EASTERN COLORADO.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS DRY AGAIN...AS A LARGE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...CAUSING THE FLOW TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER
COLORADO.  THIS ENTICES DRYING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SO WILL CALL IT DRY.

.PUB...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220/223/224 (CENTRAL
       MOUNTAINS/SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/SAN LUIS VALLEY) 1100-2200
       THURSDAY.

COZ058>089-093>099-282000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1155 AM MDT WED AUG 28 2002

...THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO THROUGH 7 AM TOMORROW...

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF
COLORADO...

LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...A DISTURBANCE WAS VISIBLE IN SATELLITE
PICTURES TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.
THIS DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
JETSTREAM POKING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO.  AS THE DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHEAST...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE MOUNTAINS ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WOULD APPEAR TO BE ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY.  THIS AREA
IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.

ANY STORMS WHICH MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS BY THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH KIOWA...BENT...CROWLEY...OTERO...PROWERS AND
BACA COUNTIES HAVING THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THAT
TIME.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WAS VISIBLE AT LATE MORNING TRACKING NORTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO MOUNTAINS.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS...THE LA GARITA MOUNTAINS...THE SAGUACHE RANGE...AND THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
LARGE HAIL TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER.  LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THE MAIN THREATS WILL INCLUDE BOTH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
WINDS...WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH POSSIBLE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
245 PM MDT WED AUG 28 2002

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0203 PM    3W GULNARE                CO   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/28/02   LAS ANIMAS

0209 PM    13S EADS                  CO   TORNADO
08/28/02   KIOWA                          BRIEF TOUCHDOWN NEAR
                                          QUEENS RESERVOIR

0220 PM    1S GULNARE                CO   1.75 INCH HAIL
08/28/02   LAS ANIMAS

0225 PM    5N WILEY                  CO   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/28/02   PROWERS