Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
220 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2002

HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH MSAS LI/S LESS THAN -9 ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS AND BUFKIT CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG. FIRST
IMPULSE APPROACHING AREA TRIGGERING AN AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION
ACROSS NE PA ...NRN NJ...AND THE LWR HUDSON VLY. SCT ACTIVITY ALSO
BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE NY METRO AREA WITH PULSE SEVERE CELLS. SPC
WATCH ISSUED FOR MOST OF FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LONG
ISLAND.

LEE TROF AND WEAK IMPULSES AT THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES
EXPECTED TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING INTO THE EVENING. MAINLY PULSE
SEVERE EVENT WITH MODERATE CAPES AND LI/S AND LIMITED UPPER
DYNAMICS. SOME HEIGHT FALLS THIS EVENING MAY INCREASE THE MID LEVEL
FLOW...AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MASS FIELDS. QPF APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE TEMPORALLY...AS IT IS SPREAD OUT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THU.  ONCE FIRST IMPULSE SWINGS BY...CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE
DOWN LATE TONIGHT.  SIMILAR TIMING FOR THU AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND ONCE AGAIN AIDES CONVECTION ALONG THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH...MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COOLING ALOFT AND STRONG MID LEVEL
WINDS...SUGGESTIVE OF A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE TOWARD EVENING THU.
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRI BEFORE
FROPA AROUND 12Z.

UPPER TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION BY 00Z SAT WITH SFC HI
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR A PLEASANT WEEKEND.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NGM MOS GUIDANCE...SPECIFICALLY TO THU MAX
TEMPS WHICH SEEM TOO HIGH BASED ON CLOUD COVER.  FRI MAX TEMPS ALSO
BUMPED UP WITH NW FLOW AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION.

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCR BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RMN BLO SCA
CRIT.

.OKX...
CT...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-270400-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1105 AM EDT WED JUN 26 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUT OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/OKX