Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Missoula, MT

WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
154 PM MDT THU JUN 27 2002

.SHORT TERM...PACIFIC TROUGH STARTING TO MAKES ITS MOVE INLAND OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH COOL FRONT PASSING OVER THE DIVIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG THE DIVIDE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS AGAIN TO THE WEST WHERE STRONG WESTERLY JET OVER
THE PACIFIC WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE REGION.

MODELS BRING A WEAK VORT LOBE OVERNIGHT INTO NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD END AFTER DAYBREAK. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THE SURFACE HEAT TROUGH WILL LIE OVER WEST CENTRAL MT
TO SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THUS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD POP UP THERE AGAIN WITH GOOD INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND. GOOD SURGE OF
MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO ID AND MT WITH SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY OVER THE NORTH AND WESTERN ZONES THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE REGION SAT...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL BELOW NORMALS WITH CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. AS THE
FIRST SURGE PASSES SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ON SUNDAY...STRONG PACIFIC JET NOSES INTO ID PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST
MT FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES ELSEWHERE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS. FELSCH

.LONG TERM...WESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE CWA. WILL HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS DIGGING DOWN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST
WHILE A WEAK RIDGE PUSHES UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH STARTS TO ROTATE
TOWARD THE CWA. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH. THURSDAY THE TROUGH HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE CWA WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. KOLATA

.MSO...NONE.

...7-DAY SPOT TEMPS AND POPS...
LIB EWW 055/087 057/079 050/073 30306726
     EBBE 048/078 050/080 051/081 053/080 3922000112
FCA EWW 053/083 056/072 047/068 30305625
     EBBE 048/072 050/074 051/076 053/074 3922000112
POL EWE 060/077 059/073 055/070 30327724
     EBBB 050/077 052/079 053/081 055/078 3922000111
MSO EWE 058/082 058/074 050/072 30226622
     EBBB 049/079 052/081 053/083 055/080 3922000011
HMM EWE 060/083 060/075 051/074 30325721
     EBBB 050/079 054/081 055/083 057/081 3922000001
BTM EWE 052/085 053/075 045/072 30333632
     BBBB 046/075 048/076 049/079 051/077 3911000000
ORO EWE 060/086 060/078 056/077 30226725
     BBBE 053/083 056/083 057/085 056/081 3922000101
GRV EWE 058/082 059/073 052/072 30227722
     BBBB 050/079 054/080 055/083 053/078 3922000111
SMN EEE 054/086 055/077 048/074 30322551
     BBBB 049/080 053/081 054/083 055/080 3911000001

MTZ002-280030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
603 PM MDT THU JUN 27 2002

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST
   FLATHEAD COUNTY...

THE WATCH THAT WAS JUST ISSUED MISTAKENLY PUT IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST FLATHEAD COUNTY IN THE WATCH. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST MONTANA...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
THEREFORE THERE IS NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST
FLATHEAD COUNTY THIS EVENING.

MEAD