Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Missoula, MT

July 8, 2002Lake County, Missoula County, Montana

NWS Missoula, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 8, 2002, 1:36 PM MDT for Lake County, Missoula County, Montana. It was in force for 39 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 8, 2002, 1:36 PM MDT (19:36 UTC)
Expired: Jul 8, 2002, 2:15 PM MDT
In force: 39 min
Issued by: NWS Missoula, MT
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Lake County, MT, Missoula County, MT

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 8, 1:45 PM MDT	Thunderstorm Wind 52 E	Condon, MT

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Spokane, WA (KOTX), launched 12:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 194 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 110 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -150 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 992 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 60 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -82 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 121 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KMSO 081936
SVRMSO
MTC047-063-082015-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
135 PM MDT MON JUL 8 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MONTANA
  NORTHERN MISSOULA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MONTANA

* UNTIL 215 PM MDT

* AT 135 PM MDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER SALMON
  PRAIRIE...OR 18 MILES SOUTHEAST OF POLSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
  MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
  OVER SALMON PRAIRIE AT 140 PM MDT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...ALONG WITH 
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE 
TO A WELL PROTECTED AREA.


LAT...LON 4759 11397 4747 11383 4758 11359 4781 11369

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Missoula, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 8, 9:56 AM MDT, 3 hours 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 8, 9:56 AM MDT, 3 hours 40 minutes before

WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
956 AM MDT MON JUL 8 2002

.SHORT TERM...UPDATESTO ZFP/SFP UPCOMING. WILL BE UPDATING TO DROP
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR RAVALLI COUNTY AND TO TWEAK FORECAST.
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF MOVING INTO CWA RIGHT NOW. RADAR LIT UP
PRETTY GOOD EARLIER THIS MORNING AS MAIN DYNAMICS MOVED THROUGH.
SHOWERS NOW DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BUT STILL A FEW PRETTY
GOOD CELLS OVER SE CWA AROUND DEER LODGE AND DRUMMOND. HAD REPORTS OF
HALF INCH HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STORMS BUT NO SEVERE YET. WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS STARTED OUT HIGH (13KFT) WHICH HELPED US AVOID SEVERE
CELLS. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE PROGGED TO FALL TO AROUND 10KFT BUT
ACTION IS MOVING OUT SO THREAT OF SEVERE DIMINISHING. SEEING SOME
NEW CELLS OVER NE OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE BUT REMAIN ISOLATED AS THINGS STABLIZE IN THE
LOW LEVELS. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN TO ISOLD
SHOWERS/TSTORMS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NW MT WHERE THINGS REMAIN UNSTABLE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS/TSTORMS THERE AND
MENTION SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WIND POSSIBILITIES. WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...ALL MODELS ADVERTISE HOT DRY RIDGE PATTERN. QUESTION
REMAINS IF ANY SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE DRIFTS NORTH FAR ENOUGH TO
IMPACT AREA LATER IN THE PERIOD. WILL BUMP HIGH TEMPS UP ROUGHLY 5
DEGREES. MSJ

.MSO...NONE

...7-DAY SPOT TEMPS AND POPS...
LIB TBU /078 045/083 046/086 3954000
     UUUU 056/097 058/097 061/094 060/092 057/ 35000000000
FCA TBU /078 044/080 045/083 3954000
     UUUU 050/092 052/092 053/090 052/088 054/ 35000000000
POL WBU /075 051/079 052/082 3953000
     UUUU 057/089 059/089 062/088 061/087 056/ 35000000000
MSO EUU /079 046/085 047/088 3932000
     UUUU 051/096 053/098 055/094 054/091 058/ 35000000000
HMM EUU /078 045/084 046/087 3921000
     UUUU 053/097 055/099 058/095 057/093 059/ 35000000000
BTM EUU /077 042/083 043/086 3931000
     UUUU 048/090 050/092 051/089 050/087 052/ 35000000000
ORO BUU /079 052/086 055/092 3921000
     UUUU 061/098 063/098 066/094 065/093 062/ 35000000000
GRV BUU /076 046/082 049/087 3921000
     UUUU 057/095 059/095 062/091 061/089 058/ 35000000000
SMN BUU /082 044/085 045/088 3920000
     UUUU 051/095 052/096 053/093 052/091 055/ 35000000000

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 8, 11:27 AM MDT, 2 hours 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1127 AM MDT MON JUL 8 2002

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION......

1015 AM    DEER LODGE                MT   3/4 INCH HAIL
07/08/02   POWELL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Missoula, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 8, 10:10 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MSO	Powell	50 min
Jul 8, 1:41 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MSO	Lake, Missoula	34 min
Jul 8, 2:05 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MSO	Missoula	40 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.