Alert archive / Montana / Flash Flood Warnings in 2002

Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Missoula, MT

June 27, 2002Ravalli County, Montana

NWS Missoula, MT issued this flash flood warning at Jun 27, 2002, 5:15 PM MDT for Ravalli County, Montana. It was in force for 60 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 27, 2002, 5:15 PM MDT (23:15 UTC)
Expired: Jun 27, 2002, 6:15 PM MDT
In force: 60 min
Issued by: NWS Missoula, MT
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Ravalli County, MT

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Spokane, WA (KOTX), launched 12:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 251 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 209 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -295 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2532 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -26 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 98 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS55 KMSO 272314
FFWMSO
MTC081-272315-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
515 PM MDT THU JUN 27 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL RAVALLI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MONTANA

* UNTIL 615 PM MDT

* AT 418 PM MDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL   
  OVER CONNER...OR 21 MILES SOUTH OF HAMILTON. SPOTTER REPORTS AND 
  RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE BETWEEN .5 AND 1.0 INCH IN LESS THAN AN 
  HOUR RESULTED FROM THESE STORMS.  

* THE THUNDERSTORM WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MOVED OVER THE   
  BITTERROOT BURN AREAS. SPECIFIC CREEKS THAT ARE LIKELY TO BE   
  AFFECTED ARE LITTLE SLEEPING CHILD...SLEEPING CHILD CREEK AND     
  UPPER PORTION OF SKALKAHO CREEK.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS
LIVING ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

CAMPING SHOULD BE AVOIDED ALONG CREEKS OR STREAMS DURING THREATENING
RAINS. EVEN SMALL STREAMS CAN BE DEADLY TORRENTS OF WATER DURING A
FLASH FLOOD.

LAT...LON 4608 11434 4584 11413 4596 11379 4629 11410

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Missoula, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jun 27, 1:54 PM MDT, 3 hours 21 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 27, 1:54 PM MDT, 3 hours 21 minutes before

WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
154 PM MDT THU JUN 27 2002

.SHORT TERM...PACIFIC TROUGH STARTING TO MAKES ITS MOVE INLAND OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH COOL FRONT PASSING OVER THE DIVIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG THE DIVIDE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS AGAIN TO THE WEST WHERE STRONG WESTERLY JET OVER
THE PACIFIC WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE REGION.

MODELS BRING A WEAK VORT LOBE OVERNIGHT INTO NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD END AFTER DAYBREAK. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THE SURFACE HEAT TROUGH WILL LIE OVER WEST CENTRAL MT
TO SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THUS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD POP UP THERE AGAIN WITH GOOD INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND. GOOD SURGE OF
MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO ID AND MT WITH SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY OVER THE NORTH AND WESTERN ZONES THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE REGION SAT...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL BELOW NORMALS WITH CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. AS THE
FIRST SURGE PASSES SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ON SUNDAY...STRONG PACIFIC JET NOSES INTO ID PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST
MT FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES ELSEWHERE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS. FELSCH

.LONG TERM...WESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE CWA. WILL HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS DIGGING DOWN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST
WHILE A WEAK RIDGE PUSHES UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH STARTS TO ROTATE
TOWARD THE CWA. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH. THURSDAY THE TROUGH HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE CWA WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. KOLATA

.MSO...NONE.

...7-DAY SPOT TEMPS AND POPS...
LIB EWW 055/087 057/079 050/073 30306726
     EBBE 048/078 050/080 051/081 053/080 3922000112
FCA EWW 053/083 056/072 047/068 30305625
     EBBE 048/072 050/074 051/076 053/074 3922000112
POL EWE 060/077 059/073 055/070 30327724
     EBBB 050/077 052/079 053/081 055/078 3922000111
MSO EWE 058/082 058/074 050/072 30226622
     EBBB 049/079 052/081 053/083 055/080 3922000011
HMM EWE 060/083 060/075 051/074 30325721
     EBBB 050/079 054/081 055/083 057/081 3922000001
BTM EWE 052/085 053/075 045/072 30333632
     BBBB 046/075 048/076 049/079 051/077 3911000000
ORO EWE 060/086 060/078 056/077 30226725
     BBBE 053/083 056/083 057/085 056/081 3922000101
GRV EWE 058/082 059/073 052/072 30227722
     BBBB 050/079 054/080 055/083 053/078 3922000111
SMN EEE 054/086 055/077 048/074 30322551
     BBBB 049/080 053/081 054/083 055/080 3911000001

The office that day

Everything else NWS Missoula, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 27, 4:26 PM MDT	Flash Flood Warning	MSO	Ravalli	49 min
Jun 27, 5:14 PM MDT	Flash Flood Warning	MSO	Ravalli	61 min
Jun 27, 5:32 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MSO	Powell	43 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Montana, 2002 Every flash flood warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.