Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
315 AM CST MON NOV 11 2002

FOR THE CURRENT PACKAGE...SHORT TERM DOMINATED BY POTENT SHORTWAVE
SWINGING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE PLAINS
STATES. LINE OF PRECIP ON-GOING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF FA AS I
WRITE...BUT IS TAKING ON A SPLIT STRUCTURE...WITH ONE PART RIDING
THE INSTABILITY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...AND NORTHERN PART
GETTING HELPED ALONG BY 850MB JET. LITTLE PRECIP NOTED BEHIND THIS
LINE...THOUGH.

ETA/GFS/NGM SWING SHORTWAVE SLOWLY UNDER BASE OF MEAN UPPER
TROUGH...WITH FRONT SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH THE FA. AM GOING WITH FRONT
PUSHING TO ALONG OUR COASTAL WATERS BY 12Z/TUESDAY (24HR TOTAL TIME
OF PASSAGE). SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL PROVIDE A NICE FOCUS FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT INTO TUESDAY...SO LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS WILL DOMINATE
MOST OF THE FA INTO TONIGHT...THEN WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. BEHIND FRONT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS INTO MID WEEK...WITH A SHIFT TO WESTERLY...BUT
IN THE EXTENDED...ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WILL PUSH A
WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE FA LATER SATURDAY. AM GOING WITH A VARYING
BLEND OF MAV/ETA PHYSICAL FOR TEMPS...WITH POPS FOLLOWING THE FRONT.

MARINE...SLOW PASSAGE OF UPPER SYSTEM WILL MEAN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

FIRE...BREEZY TO WINDY. HIGH DISPERSION INDICES...BUT RAINFALL WILL
HELP MITIGATE

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
MOB 078/059 064/042 064 8+720
PNS 078/062 066/046 065 99830
DTS 079/064 067/049 066 79940
GZH 076/057 060/039 061 8+830
2RO 073/051 059/038 061 79510
61A 075/055 060/040 061 6+930

.MOB...
AL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY GMZ650-670.
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY GMZ655-675.
MS...NONE.

16/MILLER

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-110800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED FOR RIP CURRENT THREAT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1045 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

...A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT...

...A HIGH THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG AREA
BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...
A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. A LARGE COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF
MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD AT AROUND 20
MPH. AS A RESULT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
BETTERED DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG VEERING WINDS AND HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WILL HELP GIVE WAY TO
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH MIDDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA
BEACHES. BEACHGOERS SHOULD HEED WARNINGS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS
REGARDING THE RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...STORM SPOTTERS
AND HAM RADIO OPERATORS IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS WILL
BE REQUIRED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

.