Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
117 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2002

.CURRENTLY/TONIGHT...SCATTERED STORMS HAVE FIRED RATHER EARLY ALONG
THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST.  THIS
FEATURE WAS DEPICTED BY MODELS AT 850 MB.  ELSEWHERE THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW WAS HOLDING OFF THE SEA BREEZE WITH JUST A SLIGHT HINT OF ONE
AT A FEW OF THE CANAVERAL WIND TOWERS.  WILL FOLLOW TRENDS THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN ORDER TO ASCERTAIN WHERE HIGHEST EVENING POPS WILL BE
SITUATED.

.DISCUSSION...THROUGH THE WEEKEND MODELS INDICATING THAT TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL WEAKEN UPPER RIDGE AND SHUNT
AXIS SOUTHWARD.  EXPECT THIS WOULD LESSEN THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE THAT
WAS THE LIKELY CULPRIT IN KNOCKING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN A
LITTLE TODAY.  THE ETA WAS EVEN SHOWING H25 DIVERGENCE ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS SATURDAY.  MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE RISING TO
AROUND 2 INCHES. SURFACE TO 700 MB FLOW PROGGED TO BE SOUTHWEST/WEST
...THOUGH NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE...WHICH IS CONFIRMED
BY MOS. THEREFORE WILL TREND POPS TO GOOD CHANCE EACH DAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MRF IS SHOWING THAT UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS BACK
A LITTLE TO THE NORTH WHICH ALLOWS A TUTT CELL TO MAKE CLOSER
INROADS TO THE AREA.  WOULD EXPECT THAT THERE WOULD BE SOME DRYING
PRECEDING THIS UPPER LOW AND MOISTENING ON ITS BACKSIDE...BUT MRF
SHOWS JUST THE OPPOSITE.  LOW LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO EXTEND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA SO THIS WILL FAVOR A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS NEXT WEEK.  FURTHER FORECASTS CAN REFINE
ANY INCREASE/DECREASE IN COVERAGE.

.MARINE...COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MAINTAIN 10 TO 15 KNOT
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTH LEG THROUGH SATURDAY.  TROUGH WEAKENS
SUNDAY BUT PRESSURES FORECAST TO FALL ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STILL NOTHING MORE THAN 3 FOOT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
DAB TT 074/092 074/091 074 2525
MCO TT 074/093 074/092 074 2525
MLB TT 074/091 074/090 074 2525

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...LASCODY
AVIATION/FIRE WX...WIMMER

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
192100-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1111 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2002

...A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
...HEAT INDICES UP TO 105 DEGREES OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...

A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN STORM
INITIATION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE TO BE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS.  SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE INTERIOR...MAINLY WEST ON
INTERSTATE 95...AS NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES INTERACT.

A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AND FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING STRIKES.  SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY ENCLOSED BUILDING IF
STORMS THREATEN YOUR AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S WILL COMBINE ONCE AGAIN TO PRODUCE UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT
INDICES BEFORE COOLING RAINS OCCUR.  IF YOU MUST BE OUTSIDE FOR LONG
PERIODS TODAY...BE SURE TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND DRINK PLENTY OF
WATER EVEN IF YOU DO NOT FEEL THIRSTY.

TO VIEW THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS PRODUCT...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

RL