Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
225 PM EST TUE MAR 26 2002

CURRENTLY LOCAL RADAR BECOMING VERY ACTIVE WITH SLOW MOVING
LIGHTNING STORMS ON THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 FROM VOLUSIA TO MARTIN COUNTY...AND AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

MODEL COMPARSION...AVN AND NGM STILL FAST IN DRYING OUT THE AREA.
LIKE MY MIDSHIFT COUNTERPART...PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ETA
SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE FIELDS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LIGHTNING STORMS GOING ON
ALREADY  ON THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BUMP UP POPS INDIAN RIVER
NORTH. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DID NOT HAVE MUCH CONVECTION WITH IT AS
IT PUSHES INLAND. LOOKING FOR BOTH SEA BREEZE TO S COLLIDE OVER MY
INTERIOR COUNTIES. A WEAK PACKET OF MID/ UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
COOL...-12C...TEMPERATURES AT 500MB MOVING OVER THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD MAKE A FEW STORMS A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN THE USUAL GARDEN VARIETY LIGHTNING STORMS. WITH STEERING WINDS
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WEAR ON...ANY STORMS THAT HAVE FORMED OVER THE INTERIOR
WILL BE PUSHED TOWARD THE COAST...MAINLY VOLUSIA...AND MAYBE NORTH
BREVARD COUNTIES...LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WILL MAKE
LAST MINUTE PRECIP CALL BASED ON RADAR COVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL AGAIN ALLOW
SEA BREEZES TO FORM...PUSH INLAND...AND FORM LIGHTNING STORMS OVER
THE INTERIOR. STEERING WINDS WILL PUSH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
EAST AGAIN.

THURSDAY...BOH ETA MODELS SHOWING A WEAK WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO BE PINNED ALONG THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL PUT IN A SMALL POP FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS SOUTH BREVARD TO MARTIN.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND FLORIDA WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE. EXPECT WINDS TO COME
AROUND TO THE EAST AND NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ECMWF AND MRF SHOW A FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE PANHANDLE/NORTH FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH GRAPHICAL PROGS SHOW SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
...THE NUMERICAL PROGS ARE JUST SHOWING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND POPS
IN THE TEENS. WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY POPS THIS CYCLE.

COASTAL WATERS...SOUTH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AS FRONT APPROACHES
TONIGHT THEN VEERING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS CONTINUE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

DAB BB 063/079 055/076 055 510
MCO BB 065/083 057/081 057 310
MLB BB 067/080 059/077 059 420

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...WIMMER
AVIATION/FIRE WX...GLITTO

AMZ550-555-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-270000-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1140 AM EST TUE MAR 26 2002

...ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING LIGHTNING STORMS...

DAYTIME HEATING AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER FLORIDA TODAY. THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON
...ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
LIGHTNING STORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COLLIDE OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH STEERING
WINDS PUSHING THE STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. LIGHTNING STORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING
IN VOLUSIA AND NORTH LAKE COUNTIES AS OUTFLOWS FROM EXISTING STORMS
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES...BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS...AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS...WHICH WILL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE
INITIAL COLLISION OF THE SEA BREEZES.

ALTHOUGH SUMMER IS MONTHS AWAY...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING DOES NOT
DISCRIMINATE BETWEEN SEASONS. ALWAYS MOVE INDOORS TO A SAFE LOCATION
WHEN SKIES THREATEN.

THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS AVAILABLE
AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/HWOFILES/HWOMAIN.HTML

WIMMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
206 PM EST TUE MAR 26 2002

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0200 PM    PALM BAY                  FL   HEAVY RAIN
03/26/02   BREVARD                        3.18 INCHES OF RAIN PAST
                                          90 MINUTES, PEA SIZE HAIL
                                          AND GUST TO 41 MPH.
                                          REPORT FROM WEATHER
                                          SPOTTER