Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI
1208 AM EDT WED AUG 21 2002

CURRENTLY, WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES TUTT LOW VICINITY ANDROS
ISLAND AND 88-D AT THE MOMENT CLEAR AS SOME DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE
POSSIBLY HAS MOVED OVER AREA. DIVERGENT FLOW AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO CREATE ATLC SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING. WELL SEE.

MODELS SIMILAR AGAIN. BROAD RIDGE ALONG GULF COAST STATES AND OVER N
FLA NEXT 48 HOURS WITH TUTT LOW TRAPPED UNDER SE POTION OF RIDGE AND
WIND CIRCULATION ABOUT HIGH SHOULD TAKE LOW SW TOWARD S FLA WITH
SYSTEM HANGING AROUND AREA NEXT 48 HOURS. AT SURFACE, A RIDGE ACROSS
CENTRAL FLA BEGINS TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD AS TROUGH FROM ATLC SW
TO TO SE U.S. N OF FLA FILLS AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ALONG THE
ATLC SEA BOARD.

FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS ( USING GUIDANCE TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS AND 18Z DATA TODAY AS NCF HAVING TROUBLE SHIPPING OUT 00Z
BASED GUIDANCE), MODELS INDICATE SOME MINOR THICKNESS DECREASE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS LEADING SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE TEMPS. WITH A
CONTINUED LIGHT E TO SE WIND FLOW, SEA BREEZES WILL OCCUR BOTH
COASTS AND WITH UPPER WIND DIVERGENCE CREATED BY TUTT AND POSSIBLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ENHANCING INSTABILITY SLIGHTLY, WILL UP
POPS A SMIDGE E COAST FROM CURRENT PACKAGE BUT KEEP REMAINDER OF S
FLA SAME.

MODEL OF CHOICE REMAINS AVN AS TUTT LOW HANDLED BEST LAST FEW RUNS.
ETA WANTS SYSTEM TO CROSS S FLA FURTHER N AS NOTED IN PROJECTED ETA
ROABS WITH THE STEERING FLOW REVERSING TO SW ON THU. RIGHT NOW
DISCOUNTING THIS BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IN THE EXTENDED, ANY INFLUENCE OF TUTT LOW TO S FLA WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES FRIDAY BUT A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE DOES MOVE W AND AT THIS
TIME PROBABLY S OF AREA IN CARIB. RIDGE ACROSS GULF COAST STATES
AND OVER N FLA BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS A BROAD TROUGH BEGINS TO CARVE
OUT OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLC STATES. THE SURFACE RIDGE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA RETREATS S SOME AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING SE ALONG THE SE U.S. COAST MON NIGHT BUT NOT MAKING IT
S OF 30N. SO, LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT EXTENDED PACKAGE.

IN THE MARINE ZONES, CONTINUED E TO SE WIND FLOW OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY.

NO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED FIRE WEATHER.

CCF TEMPS MAY CHANGE IF GUIDANCE COMES/SHOWS ANY SIGNIFICANT JUMPS.

PBI TT 089/076 089/076 090 1553524
FLL TT 089/078 088/078 089 1553524
MIA TT 089/077 089/077 090 1553524
APF TT 089/074 089/075 090 1553525=

.MIA...NONE.