Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1221 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2002

S FLA WILL REMAIN UNDER PSEUDO OMEGA BLOCK THROUGH FRIDAY. THAT
IS, BROAD TROUGH ON U.S. W COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER INTERIOR
WITH A BROAD BAGGY TROUGH OVER THE SE U.S. AND FLA. PAST FRI, RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR OF COUNTRY WITH EXTENSION BUILDING E OVER
THE SE U.S. INTO THE ATLC. SURFACE RIDGE S OF AREA OVER BAHAMAS AND
FLA STRAITS IN RESPONSE MOVES N OVER S FLA PENINSULA.

FOR THE NEAR TERM, TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TROUGH ALOFT OVER S FLA BUT SURFACE ACROSS S FLA FEATURE WITH
SURFACE LOW IN ATLC SLOWLY FILLS AND DISSIPATES. DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER WATER AT NIGHT (ESPECIALLY GULF STREAM)
AND AFFECTING MAINLY INTERIOR AND E DURING THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH
KEEPS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER S FLA. AGAIN, THOUGH SOME DRYING
ALOFT AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER IN FORECASTED SOUNDINGS, FEEL AVN
POPS TOO LOW AND WILL LEAN UPON NGM/MET GUIDANCE. TEMPS REASONABLE
ALL GUIDANCE.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, SAT THROUGH WED, RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT
BUILDS OVER SE U.S. WITH A DEEPENING E TO SE FLOW. THIS GETTING MORE
LIKE NORMAL WITH NOCTURNAL/EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY E AND INTERIOR AND
W AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENINGS. NOTE OF CAUTION, MODELS HAVE BEEN TRYING
TO ESTABLISH THIS NORMAL PATTERN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS NOW AND ALL THAT
S FLA HAS EXPERIENCED HAS BEEN BRIEF FLIRTATIONS. WELL WAIT AND SEE
BUT GO WITH MODELS FOR NOW.

IN THE MARINE ZONES, SW FLOW GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY SHIFTING TO A SE FLOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
WIND SE SUNDAY AND MON POSSIBLY BECOMING 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NO
HIGHLIGHTS THOUGH.

NIL HIGHLIGHTS FIRE WEATHER.

.CRYSTAL FACE...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY AGAIN IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
WITH CELLS DEVELOPING AGAIN OVER THE WEST AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. STEERING WINDS WILL MOVE THESE STORMS TO THE EAST
/NORTHEAST WITH THE ANVILS STREAMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AS UPPER
FLOW MORE NORTHERLY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD REACH 50K WITH QUITE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

PBI TT 073/089 074/090 074 1536353
FLL TT 074/089 076/089 076 1536353
MIA TT 073/090 075/090 075 1536353
APF BB 073/088 074/088 074 1524242=

.MIA...NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI, FL
152 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0250 PM    LIGHTHOUSE POINT          FL   .75 INCH HAIL
07/03/02   BROWARD                        REPORTED BY
SPOTTERS

0252 PM    LIGHTHOUSE POINT          FL   70 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
07/03/02   BROWARD                        TREES DOWN AND CARS
                                          DAMAGEDREPORTED BY SPOTTERS

0305 PM    MIAMI SHORES              FL   .75 INCH HAIL
07/03/02   MIAMI-DADE                     REPORTED BY
NEWS MEDIA

0305 PM    LIGHTHOUSE POINT          FL   1.75 INCH HAIL
07/03/02   BROWARD                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

0305 PM    BISCAYNE PARK             FL   .75 INCH HAIL
07/03/02   MIAMI-DADE                     REPORTED BY OFF DUTY NWS
                                          METEOROLOGIS

KOB