Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
300 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2002

AT 1930Z...STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JEF/AIZ/SGF...AND HAS
BEEN MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS ALL DAY. MEANWHILE...A VERY
SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC BOUNDARY ALONG A
CGI/HZD/LUG LINE. TO THE N...PRECIP OCCURRED ALL MORNING WITH AFTN
TEMPS IN THE 60S...WHILE TO THE S IT HAS BEEN PSUNNY TO MCLDY WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S. WILL BE LESS THAN 5 DEGREES FROM
RECORD MAXES.

QUICK ESTIMATES FOR FROPA ARE 22Z-02Z JBR...01Z-05Z MEM AND MKL...
AND 04Z-08Z TUP. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN...BUT HOW
MUCH?  RIGHT NOW...ALMOST NOTHING SHOWING ON SGF/NQA/LZK/PAH RADARS.
HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATING U/L DIVERGENCE OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...
ALONG WITH FRONTAL INFLUENCES...AND CAPE AOA 1000 J/KG. WILL BOOST
POPS FOR TONIGHT FROM CURRENT SLT CHC TO HIGHER CHC MOST AREAS. WILL
EMPHASIZE EVENING MANY AREAS. SPC DAY 1 INDICATES SLIGHT RISK
TONIGHT. THREAT IS THERE...ESPECIALLY NEAR LIFTING WARM FRONT AND
THEN ALONG SFC FRONT THIS EVENING.

STRONG CAA TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. CLEARING SHOULD BE SWIFT. HOWEVER...CAA IS SO STRONG
THAT TEMPS WILL NOT REBOUND MUCH. THU NIGHT WILL BE JUST PLAIN COLD.
HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO DROP WINDS NRN HALF...AND
WITH DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE 30S...LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

WEAK S/W TROFS WILL THEN MOVE UP AND OVER THE SFC AND U/L RIDGE THAT
BUILDS IN. FORECAST BEYOND DAY 1 HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF
THAT RIDGE. AT THIS POINT...WILL FOLLOW BLEND OF ETA/AVN...BY
LOWERING POPS FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN ACTIVITY THERE APPEARS
TO BE ON SATURDAY.

EXTENDED...SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE ERN US OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE A STRONG INFLUENCE...FRONT
WILL HANG UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AS FRONT MOVES BACK TO NORTH
MON/TUE...BELIEVE SHRA/TSRA WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO RIDGE BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WILL HOLD CHC POPS IN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ALSO
ON TUESDAY (MOST AREAS). WED LOOKS DRY BUT QUITE WARM.

HOPE TO GET A LOOK AT 18Z ETA BEFORE ISSUANCE. TEMP GUIDANCE
GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT...SAVE FOR MAXES FRIDAY. EXPECT CLOUD COVER
TO INHIBIT MAXES BUT NOT TO LEVEL OF MAV GUIDANCE. WILL COMPROMISE.

JE/23
PRELIM DIGITS... (FIRST PERIOD POPS VERY PRELIM)
MEM  52/69/46/65/54  40021
MKL  52/67/40/66/52  40021
JBR  47/67/44/64/52  40022
TUP  57/70/43/67/53  40021

.MEG...NONE.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-250600-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
350 PM CDT WED APR 24 2002

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS WEST TENNESSEE...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...EAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM DYERSBURG TO LEXINGTON.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT FOR THE REST OF WEST TENNESSEE...ALL OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...
AND ALL OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS MISSOURI...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY NEAR A
WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR
WILL BE THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.

STORM SPOTTERS GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD
MONITOR CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS
EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.