Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
744 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2002

HAVE SENT UPDATED ZONES TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE N IN PROXIMITY
TO BOUNDARY...BEST CONVERGENCE STILL LOOKS TO BE N THOUGH.  ALSO
MENTIONED SEVERE S WHERE DRYLINE TYPICALLY HANGS BACK AND AS RICH
MSTR (19C 85H TD ON DRT SOUNDING) TO CONTRIBUTE TO HIGH CAPES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN SHRTWV TROF MVG THRU ERN AZ ATTM WITH 80KT
250H JET MVG INTO FAR W TX.  KMAF 88D SHOWS NEW DEVELOPMENT MVG
INTO GDP MTNS WITHIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/5H-3H DPVA.
OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL MSTR AGAINST MTNS WITH LLJ ONLY 35KT ON KMAF VWP.
PROGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY AXIS TO BE A LITTLE FARTHER E TDY THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED NE NM SWWD INTO
WRN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...E OF SFC LOW AND ALONG TROF/THERMAL
GRADIENT.  THIS WITH MAIN SHRTWV TROF INTO NE NM AND WITH WEAKER
SHRTWV ENERGY ACRS CWFA WILL GO SCT POPS N WANING TO ISOLD S...SOME
SEVERE POSSIBLE.  AS SHRTWV TROF MOVES E INTO SRN PLAINS TUESDAY MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE N/S WITH SHRTWV ENERGY MVG S LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT (MCS) SUSTAINING SCT POPS...ESPECIALLY N.  FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
FCST DRY BEYOND TUESDAY...BUT WITH 3H SHEAR AXIS ISOLD POPS NOT OF
QUESTION.

PRELIMS
MAF   93/63/95/65   332
LSA   89/61/91/63   353
6R6   90/67/93/67   222
MRF   86/53/88/55   1--
CNM   93/62/99/62   1--

.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-271900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
509 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2002

.SYNOPSIS...
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING
EAST FROM THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND WILL TRANSIT OVER
WEST TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.  IN ADDITION...THE REMAINS OF AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND OUT FLOW FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS...WAS
STRETCHED FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS INTO NORTH TEXAS.

.THREATS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND THE PERMIAN BASIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AFTER SUNRISE...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATER TODAY...A DRYLINE
WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO THE TRANS PECOS REGION AND THE PERMIAN BASIN.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO CONVERGE ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE...
FROM THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING
PLAINS...AND ALONG THE DRYLINE TO THE SOUTH.  LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES...TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS.

BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE AREA
MOST AT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY WILL BE GENERALLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM SEMINOLE...TO MONAHANS...TO ALPINE.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL GENERALLY BE AFTER 300 PM...WITH STORMS SLOWLY
DECREASING IN INTENSITY LATE THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF THE DRYLINE AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  MORE ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM SEVERE STORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS.

LINDLEY