Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
353 PM CDT THU APR 18 2002

THE DRYLINE HAS POSITIONED ITSELF ALONG A GAIL...MIDLAND...SANDERSON
LINE THIS AFTERNOON. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...KEEPING SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS CRANE AND MIDLAND COUNTIES
AT 20Z. EXPECT ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME POSSIBLY
BECOMING SEVERE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE BACK TO
THE WEST AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE
AND SOUTH PLAINS AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SHOULD STALL OUT JUST NORTH OF
OUR CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINE WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. FRONT MAY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH. AVN
INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY...
WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK IMPULSES
ALOFT MAY KEEP ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE BELOW IS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY.
OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN THE WEST TEXAS/SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO ZONE FORECAST.

MAF  63/87/62/86    2232
LSA  62/85/58/82    1132
6R6  67/91/65/90    2232
MRF  54/83/52/81    --11
CNM  58/89/55/85    --22

.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-191100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
200 PM CDT THU APR 18 2002

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS REGION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS WEST TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF THE DRYLINE...AFTERNOON HEATING AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS PECOS
REGION.

.THUNDERSTORM THREATS...
THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
INTO PECOS COUNTY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE RETREATING WEST
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE AIRMASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 80S. AN INHIBITING
FACTOR TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS...
HOWEVER ENOUGH BREAKS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW
SUFFICIENT HEATING TO OCCUR. THIS COMBINED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY
OF THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND PROFILES ALOFT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND
LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN...LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND LOWER TRANS PECOS
REGION.

COBB