Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
353 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2002

CONVECTION ONGOING OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS ATTM...WHILE CONVECTION
IS NOW STARTING TO BUBBLE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...
NOW LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG A QUEEN...LAMESA...TO ASPERMONT LINE.
PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AOA 3 KJ/KG BUT MID TO LOW LEVEL SR
WINDS ARE ANEMIC.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT SOME CAPPING BUT WE
EXPECT THAT TO BE REMOVED THROUGH A COMBINATION OF MIXING AND
ADIABATIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN NM.  GIVEN THE DEEP MIXED LAYER AND WEAK
WINDS...WE EXPECT A MIXED CELLULAR/LINEAR MODE TO CONVECTION THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS.  HAVE SEEN NUMEROUS DEVILS OUTSIDE RECENTLY...AND
LANDSPOUTS COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE BENEATH RAPIDLY GROWING CUMULUI.
WILL ALSO HAVE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS REMAIN HIGH AND
STORM MOTIONS SLOW...BUT BELIEVE THE THREAT TO BE LOCALIZED ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE MENTION OF SAME IN THIS FORECAST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY SOUTH...BUT ITS
EXACT POSITION WILL BE MASKED VIA CONVECTIVELY GENERATED COLD POOLS.
EXPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO I-10 BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY LATE TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE AND TRANSLATING
NORTH WEDNESDAY.  WILL SHOTGUN CHC POPS ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT...
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEAST WHERE MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC
FORCING THE GREATEST.  WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW ORDER POPS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A PLETHORA OF RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES SERVE AS FOCI
FOR SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT.  AFTERWARDS...UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD BACK
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKEWISE RISE BACK
TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.  AVN IS HINTING AT AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF PRECIP THIS WEEKEND...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE AVN IS
SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.  FOR NOW WE WILL RETAIN ISOLD
DIURNAL TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE DRY AND HOT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THE PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE BELOW IS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY.
OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN THE WEST TEXAS/SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO ZONE FORECAST.

MAF  67/91/69/96    422-
LSA  65/91/68/96    322-
6R6  72/94/72/95    322-
MRF  61/83/61/83    3221
CNM  68/94/70/99    322-

.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-140930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
315 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2002

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING.  LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

.WEATHER HAZARDS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
THE COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND
DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN
TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND AREA. SOME STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE TONIGHT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT WILL
EXTEND EAST OF A HOBBS...FORT DAVIS LINE.

HEAVY RAIN...
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...IN EXCESS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. PONDING OF WATER MAY OCCUR ON AREA ROADS.
DO NOT DRIVE IN AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. FLOODING MAY ALSO
OCCUR IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CLL

TXZ047-048-051>053-140300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
424 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1000 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN WEST TEXAS...

BORDEN...HOWARD...MARTIN...MITCHELL AND SCURRY

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...

BIG SPRING...COLORADO CITY...GAIL...SNYDER AND STANTON

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL 3/4 OF AN INCH OR
GREATER AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE IN OR NEAR TO THE
WATCH AREA...CHECK PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...KEEP INFORMED...AND BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER IF A WARNING IS ISSUED OR SEVERE
WEATHER IS OBSERVED.