Severe Thunderstorm Warning 234, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1230 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2002

WRM FNT LIES ACRS THE ERN OZARKS ATTM WITH FNT JUST N OF FAM-VIH
LN.  N OF FNT DEWPT CONTS TO PUSH THE TEMP UPWRD WITH FOG STILL
PERSISTING ACRS THE STL AREA.  FNT WILL CONT TO LIFT NWD TNGT WITH
CHALLENGING FCST AHD.  TIGHT GRAD FCST BY ETA TNGT WITH BNDRY LYR
WIND FCST 30-35 KTS ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA.

STRNG H3 JET OVR SRN CA THIS MRNG FCST TO MOVE INTO CNTRL OK BY 12Z
WED WITH THE NOSE UP TO STL AREA BY WED EVE AT 120 KTS.  AT 12Z WED,
ETA IS FCSTG BEST LI OVR NE CRNR OF MO UNDR UPR DVRGC BULLSEYE.  IN
RESPONSE MODEL FCSTS 850 JET OF 50-60 KTS ACRS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH
SGNFNT MSTR CNVGC INTO CNTRL/NE MO BY MIDN.  ETA TENDS TO OVRFCST
THE WIND, AND AT MIDN THE NGM AND GFS ARE RUNNING 10-20 KTS LWR AT
850.

IN THE EXTND PD, THE GFS AND UKMET FM THE 00Z RUN ARE ALMST
IDENTICAL AT H5 FOR FRI EVE WITH DEEP TROF FCST FM THE UPR MIDWEST
INTO THE SRN PLNS WITH RDG OVR THE GRT BASIN. THE ECMWF FM 16/12Z
FOR FRIS MRNG FCST VERY SMLR WITH 500 FEATURES.  MIDN UPDATE OF THE
GFS FCSTS DEEPR TROF OVR OK BY SAT EVE THAN 00Z RUN.

.STL...NONE

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-034>036
-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-182200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
400 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2002

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE REGION.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.

WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.  THIS
WARM AIR NEAR THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE AN EVNIRONMENT CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ABOUT POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1021 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2002

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0925 PM    1W JEFFERSON CITY         MO   0.88 INCH HAIL
12/17/02   COLE                           REPORTED BY COLE COUNTY
                                          SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT.

0930 PM    2W JEFFERSON CITY         MO   0.75 INCH HAIL
12/17/02   COLE                           REPORTED BY SEVERE
                                          WEATHER SPOTTERS.