Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
200 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2002

MSAS DATA FM 18Z INDICATES BEST SFC MSTR CNVGC LIES ACRS E CNTRL MO
AND E CNTRL KS WITH LIS <-7 S OF I-70.  LN OF STRNG-SVR TSTMS MOVG
ACRS CNTRL-E CNTRL MO ATTM.  ETA DRIVES MUCH DRIER AIR INTO NW MO
THIS EVE AND INTO THE CNTRL PTN OF THE STATE BY MIDN.  BLV THAT MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THIS EVE WITH BTR MSTR AND INSTABILITY
AVBL.

MODELS FAIRLY SMLR IN HNDLG THE CLOSED H5 LOW THAT DROPS DWN INTO
THE AREA LTR THU.  THIS COUPLED WITH SGNFNT RTRN OF MSTR WITH ETA
FCSTG K INDICES IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ACRS MUCH OF AREA.  ETAS
QPF AND MET POPS LOOK RNSBL AND WILL FOLLOW FAIRLY CLOSE.

IN THE EXTND PD, THE MRF, UKMET AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SMLR AT H5 FOR
SUN MRNG WITH LOW OVR SE MO AND HOT RDG ANCHORED OVR THE WRN U.S.
LOW FCST TO MEANDER ARND THE RGN INTO MID WEEK AS PTRN RMNS LOCKED
IN.

.STL...NONE