Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
410 PM CST JAN 5 2002

LATEST SURFACE DATA INDICATED A DOUBLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWEST LA COAST. INITIAL MESOSCALE LOW WAS NEAR
PATTERNON JUST EAST OF ATCHAFALAYA BAY AND THE SECOND LOW ABOUT 50
NM SOUTH OF CAMERON LA AT MID-AFTN. AS INITIAL VORT LOBE SWINGS NEWD
ACROSS SE LA LATE THIS AFTN THE INITIAL LOW WILL BECOME DIFFUSE
WHILE THE SECOND LOW OFF THE SW LA COAST CONTINUES TO TRACK ENE AND
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER SE LA BY EVENING AND THEN CONTINUES
ENE ACROSS SE MS TONIGHT. MAIN H5 TROF WILL SWING ENE ACROSS S TX BY
EVENING. PER LATEST RUC MODEL SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST N OF
HAMMOND-SLIDELL AREA EARLY TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
A LITTLE FURTHER NWD THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW. HOWEVER THE MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE SE LA COAST-MS COAST OR
JUST OFFSHORE. A FEW STORMS NEAR THE COAST COULD BECOME LOCALLY
SEVERE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTN. HOWEVER IN GENERAL A WIDESPREAD
PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD CONTINUE TO SWEEP NEWD AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANOTHER MP TYPE COLD FRONT SHOULD RACE EWD OVER THE
CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM SUGGEST CONTINUING WIND ADVISORY IN SAME AREA AS
PREVIOUS ZONE FCST PACKAGE. BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BEHIND
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ANOTHER S/W TROF
DROPPING SWD SUN NIGHT INTO MON SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING
WITH MIN TEMPS MON NIGHT DOWN INTO THE FREEZING RANGE MOST INLAND
AREAS. CLOUDINESS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW BY SUN NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SPREADS EWD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TEMPS SHOULD
MODIFY SOMEWHAT WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING. IN SUMMARY GOING ALONG
WITH THE AVN MODEL AS SURFACE LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT FASTER.

.NEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVZY...TIDAL LAKES OF PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS
       GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS FROM KPQL-ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LAZ069-070
MS...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MSZ080>082

05

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-061200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
515 PM CST SAT JAN 5 2002

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT. RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST.

.THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF DAY MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

.MARINE HAZARDS...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND
MAUREPAS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE THE COASTAL WATERS OF
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WHILE WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL OCCUR
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

.WIND ADVISORY...
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH PREVAIL WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

.ACTIONS...
NONE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX
(ALL LOWER CASE).