Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS New Orleans, LA

000 
WGUS74 KLIX 100402
FFSNEW
LAC057-109-100615-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1100 PM CDT WED OCT 9 2002

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 AM CDT FOR
TERREBONNE AND NORTHERN LAFOURCHE PARISHES.

AT 1055 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A BAND OF
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
ACROSS EASTERN TERREBONNE PARISH AND SECTIONS OF NORTHERN LAFOURCHE
PARISH. RAINFALL RATES AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR WERE OCCURRING
WITHIN THIS BAND. LOUISIANA STATE POLICE REPORTED THAT PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 57 BETWEEN HOUMA AND DULAC WERE COVERED WITH WATER. IN
ADDITION...EXTENSIVE STREET FLOODING WAS REPORTED BY LAFOURCHE
PARISH OFFICIALS BETWEEN RACELAND AND HOUMA.

ALTHOUGH THIS BAND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WAS SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE
EAST...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FALLING OVERNIGHT ON ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO FLASH FLOODING.

MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY OR PAST POLICE BARRICADES.
RAPIDLY RISING WATER CAN ENGULF A VEHICLE AND ITS OCCUPANTS AND SWEEP
THEM AWAY. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS IN THE WATER...ABANDON IT
IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
335 PM CDT WED OCT 9 2002

...A VERY RAINY PERIOD FROM NOW UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...
...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
   AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AT 4 PM CDT...

LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS BECOME QUITE PRONOUNCED IN THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS AS WARM FRONT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING NORTHWARD. SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION IS SHOWING SOME MODEST ROTATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS
WITH ONE TORNADO ALREADY REPORTED IN THE NAPOLEONVILLE AND
LABADIEVILLE AREAS BETWEEN 2 AND 230 PM. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE SCALE VERTICAL LIFT FROM
THIS EVENING ONWARD. GOES SOUNDER DATA SHOWS THE ENTIRE NORTHWEST
GULF SHROUDED BY DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WITH THE HOLES REVEALING 2.25
INCHES OR BETTER P.W. VALUES. THIS IS ALL POINTING TO THE LA GULF
COASTAL REGION.

WILL ISSUE THE FLOOD WATCH PER EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
GUIDANCE. DO AGREE WITH THE 24 HOUR STORM TOTAL OF 3-5 INCHES
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT BY THE TIME THE NEXT FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THE RAINFALL TOTALS CAN GET UGLY...PERHAPS
EXCEEDING 10 INCHES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IN SOME
LOCATIONS. I KNOW THIS IS NOT ENCOURAGING NEWS IN AREAS THAT JUST
PUT AWAY TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE NEXT FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE THE DENSITY TO
BRING AUTUMNAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. MAY HAVE TO GO THROUGH
A BOUT OF SQUALLY SEVERE WEATHER PRE-FRONTAL SUNDAY.

COORDINATION...THANKS JAN...MOB AND LFMRC FOR FLOOD WATCH COORD.
CAME TO CONSENSUS WITH MOB ON DROPPING THE COASTAL MS COUNTIES FROM
WATCH AT THIS TIME AND WILL RE-EVALUATE FOR LATER ISSUANCE THURSDAY
MORNING. THANKS SPC FOR SEVERE WEATHER COORD.

MCB 70/80/69/81 9967       BTR 70/80/68/81 9967
MSY 75/80/72/82 8877       GPT 73/80/71/80 5777

.NEW...NONE.
LA...FLOOD WATCH ENTIRE CWA.
MS...FLOOD WATCH ENTIRE CWA.

24

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-100000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
229 PM CDT WED OCT 9 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE
TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.

THE LOWER PEARL RIVER REMAINS IN FLOOD. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS FOR UPDATES.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY
BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE NEAR AND ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE A
RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME STORMS MAY ROTATE AND
PRODUCE A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE GENERALLY EAST OF A MORGAN CITY TO
LIBERTY MISSISSIPPI LINE. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH
AT 20 TO 25 MPH. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE WATCH AREA. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE SOIL REMAINS VERY MOIST
FOLLOWING TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS. THEREFORE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF INTO CREEKS...RIVERS AND BAYOUS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO
POTENTIAL TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. RELAY ANY INCLEMENT WEATHER
REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. HAM RADIO OPERATIONS IS NOT
ACTIVATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS FROM THIS EVENING
SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS, LA
545 PM CDT WED OCT 9 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0202 PM    6 SE NAPOLEONVILLE        LA   TORNADO
10/09/02   ASSUMPTION                     6 MOBILE HOMES HEAVILY
                                          DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. A
                                          TOTAL OF 39 RESIDENCES WERE
                                          DAMAGED RANGING FROM MINOR
                                          TO MAJOR. NO INJURIES AND
                                          NO FATALITIES. APPROXIMATE
                                          AREA WHERE DAMAGE OCCURRED
                                          LOUISIANA HIGHWAY 1
                                          AND HIGHWAY 400. REPORTED BY
                                          ASSUMPTION PARISH
                                          EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT